New Hampshire Moves to Toss Up State as Harris’s Lead Narrows

Real Clear Politics changed its status after a couple of recent polls show Trump within the margin of error.

AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty
President Trump speaks at a campaign rally, August 8, 2023, at Windham High School at Windham, New Hampshire. AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty

With only five days to go until Election Day, New Hampshire is suddenly in play.

The election forecaster Real Clear Politics moved New Hampshire on Thursday from “leans Harris” to “toss up.” This comes after two recent polls show President Trump narrowing Ms. Harris’s lead by less than the margin of error or pulling ahead slightly.

A New Hampshire Journal poll released Sunday shows Trump leading Ms. Harris by 0.4 percent. An Emerson College poll released last week shows Ms. Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points.

Other polls, though, including a St. Anslem College one released Wednesday, show Ms. Harris still in the lead — though no longer the nearly double-digit one she had in August.

“It is absolutely a toss up state,” the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, Chris Ager, tells The New York Sun. “I totally agree, and we’ll see on Tuesday, because our people are notorious for confounding the pollsters.”

This means the Granite State is now joining the ranks of the eight battleground states that will likely decide the election. New Hampshire gets four electoral votes. This may not be much, but in a race for every last electoral vote — when a proposed change to Nebraska’s divided electoral college got so much attention — New Hampshire may be a deciding factor.

New Hampshire is purple, but it has voted blue in seven of the last eight presidential elections. All of its senators and congresspersons are Democrats. The betting site Polymarket still gives Ms. Harris a 80 percent chance of winning the state. 

Former president, Bill Clinton, will be campaigning in New Hampshire over the weekend. The only “toss up” governor’s race is also in New Hampshire this year. No major Trump surrogates, though, will be coming to the Granite State, according to Mr. Ager.

“We don’t need anybody. We’re already fired up,” Mr. Ager says.

The chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party did not immediately respond to the Sun’s request for comment.


The New York Sun

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