New Blood Test Could Predict Heart Disease Risk 30 Years Out, Study Finds

The study analyzed data from nearly 30,000 American women participating in the Women’s Health Study.

AP/Mark Lennihan
Surgeons perform a non-emergency angioplasty at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York. AP/Mark Lennihan

A groundbreaking study in the New England Journal of Medicine reveals a new method for predicting a person’s 30-year risk of heart disease through a routine blood test.

Traditionally, doctors have evaluated cardiovascular risk primarily by measuring cholesterol levels, particularly LDL or “bad” cholesterol. However, this approach may overlook critical risk factors, experts say.

The lead author and director of the Center for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, Dr. Paul Ridker, emphasized the importance of additional biomarkers.

“We have other biomarkers that tell us about other kinds of biological problems our patients who are destined to have cardiovascular disease are likely to have,” Dr. Ridker said, according to an NBC News report.

Dr. Ridker’s research team identified two additional markers — lipoprotein (a) or Lp(a), a type of fat in the blood, and C-reactive protein, an inflammation marker — as significant predictors of heart attack, stroke, and coronary heart disease.

The study analyzed data from nearly 30,000 American women participating in the Women’s Health Study, with an average age of 55 at enrollment between 1992 and 1995. Over the 30-year follow-up period, approximately 13 percent of participants experienced a heart attack, stroke, artery surgery, or death from heart disease.

At the study’s outset, participants underwent blood tests measuring LDL cholesterol, Lp(a), and CRP levels. These measurements, both individually and combined, effectively predicted heart health over the next 30 years.

When considering all three markers together, women with the highest levels were 1.5 times more likely to suffer a stroke and over three times more likely to develop coronary heart disease within the next 30 years compared to those with the lowest levels.


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