New Analysis Suggests Trump Tax Proposals Would Increase Deficit by $5.8 Trillion Over the Next Decade

The new analysis also suggests Vice President Harris’s proposals would increase the deficit by $1.2 trillion over the same period.

AP/Mary Altaffer
The national debt clock at Manhattan on May 25, 2023. AP/Mary Altaffer

A new analysis is putting a price tag on the economic policies proposed by both Vice President Harris and President Trump.

The analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania, Trump’s alma mater, found that Ms. Harris’s proposals would increase the deficit by $1.2 trillion over 10 years, while Trump’s proposals would increase the deficit by $5.8 trillion over the same time period.

For Ms. Harris’s plan, the Wharton School model projects that spending would increase by $2.3 trillion over the next decade while tax revenue would increase by $1.1 trillion.

The model cited an expanded child tax credit and earned income tax credit, down payment assistance for first-time home buyers, and an increase in corporate tax rates as key policies proposed so far by Ms. Harris.

“Low- and middle-income households in 2026 and 2034 fare better under the campaign proposals on a conventional basis, while households in the top 5 percent of the income distribution fare worse,” the analysis reads.

For Trump’s plan, the model projects an increase in the deficit of $5.8 trillion, attributable entirely to tax cuts proposed by Trump.

The analysis marked an extension of the Trump era tax cuts, an elimination of tax on Social Security benefits, and a proposed cutting of the corporate tax rates as key policies being proposed by the Trump camp.

“Low, middle, and high-income households in 2026 and 2034 all fare better under the campaign proposals on a conventional basis,” the analysis reads.

For both proposals, the analysts note that “These conventional gains and losses do not include the negative impact of the additional debt burden on future generations who must finance most of the spending increases.”


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