When Fred Thompson arrives in Jacksonville, Fla., today, he’d better hit the ground running: His dawdling over the last few months has cost him a couple of miles. National polls are showing a healthy bump for the former Tennessee senator since he entered the race last week. But what’s happening on the ground in the Sunshine State — where a January 29 primary may well determine the Republican nominee — illuminates the danger of a strategy based on starting late and hoping that hype and celebrity can substitute for solid organizing.

According to a number of Jacksonville-area Republican donors I’ve spoken to in recent days, the former Tennessee senator’s unimpressive early organization and late entry into the presidential race have led to a group of power players signing up with Mr. Thompson’s chief rival for the social-conservative vote: the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney. Yesterday, Mr. Romney’s campaign announced the support of a former ambassador to Bermuda and major Bush donor, John Rood, as well as the mayor of Jacksonville, John Peyton. It also announced nine new members of its state finance team, all from the city.

Mr. Rood, who attained “Ranger” status in 2004 by raising more than $200,000 for President Bush’s re-election campaign, is part of a group of about 20 Jacksonville-area Bush (that’s president and governor) donors and political supporters who have grown accustomed to working as a team. However, with both Bush brothers staying on the sidelines in this primary race — and everyone I’ve talked to insists there’s been neither a nod nor a wink from either — the group has failed to coalesce around any one candidate. This may be the first step in that direction.

Explaining his and his colleagues’ choice, Mr. Rood cited Mr. Thompson’s late entry into the race as a key factor. “Many in the group were eager to make a decision,” Mr. Rood said. “Thompson not being a candidate means that, you know, we really looked at the top three, which included Senator McCain and Governor Romney and MayorGiuliani, asannouncedcandidates that we were going to pick between.”

Mr. Rood also cited the effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the Thompson organization at a meeting the Jacksonville group held in July, where representatives of the various campaigns came in and pled their cases. While Messrs. Romney, Giuliani, and McCain all sent staff members to give detailed presentations in person that “were all very impressive,” according to Mr. Rood, Mr. Thompson had a consultant call in and relay some generalities about the “Law & Order” actor’s strength in national polling. That decision, according to all accounts, was received quite poorly by the group.

A spokesman for the Thompson campaign, Jeff Sadosky, responded to yesterday’s endorsements, saying, “We look forward to running a vigorous campaign throughout the state of Florida.” He declined to say whether Mr. Thompson would be meeting with any Jacksonville-area donors while he’s in town today.

Repairing the damage may be a steep climb for Mr. Thompson. According to numerous people who attend the Jacksonville group’s meetings, one of its organizers, Peter Rummell, tried to set up a meeting with members on behalf of Mr. Thompson recently. While all of the other major candidates had come in over the summer, there was no interest in a meeting with Mr. Thompson.

That Mr. Thompson has stumbled so badly in courting the Jacksonville political establishment is remarkable. Along with the Florida panhandle and the I–4 corridor across the state’s middle, Jacksonville (in the state’s northeast corner, not too far from Savannah, Ga.) is a key target for any candidate looking to be the “conservative alternative” to Mr. Giuliani. In Florida, the North is the South. That is, the northern parts of the state are politically “Southern,” whereas the southern parts of the state are more “Northern” — filled with immigrants from Cuba, New York City, New England, and other distinctly non-Dixie places.

Mr. Giuliani has been working to consolidate his power base in Miami, Broward County, and Palm Beach. Messrs. Thompson and Romney will be fighting for the rest. So far, Mr. Giuliani leads in the state by double digits over Mr. Thompson, with 28% over Mr. Thompson’s 17% in the Quinnipiac poll released yesterday — and the newly announced candidate saw no bounce compared to the same poll in August.

Another Bush Ranger who’s a member of the Jacksonville group and has yet to announce support for any candidate, Michael Hightower, doesn’twriteoffMr. Thompson just yet. “There’s been many a successful candidate that’s qualified on the last day and won the race,” he told me.

“In politics, there are no sure winners,” he said. “You’ve just got to work harder than your opponent.”

So far, though, Mr. Thompson has not.

rsager@nysun.com