A WNBA all-star who has been spending her days shuttling between a courtroom and a Russian prison cell, Brittney Griner, sent a handwritten letter asking President Biden to “do all you can” to ensure her return to America. What that might mean has now come into focus: the release of a notorious Russian arms dealer known as the “Merchant of Death,” Viktor Bout. 

Mrs. Griner’s detention began days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. She is being held on charges of carrying hashish oil — a highly THC-concentrated liquid often found in vape pens — in her luggage, and faces up to 10 years in Russian prison if convicted. Acquittals are rare in Russian courts.

The basketball superstar, who has garnered two Olympic gold medals representing America, had been in Russia playing for a professional team during the WNBA off-season, a not uncommon practice among female basketball players seeking to augment their salaries. 

“As I sit here in a Russian prison, alone with my thoughts and without the protection of my wife, family, friends, Olympic jersey, or any accomplishments, I’m terrified I might be here forever,” Mrs. Griner wrote. 

In early May, the American state department determined that Mrs. Griner was being “wrongfully detained,” a classification that allows American government officials to negotiate for her release before the conclusion of her trial. 

Russian news organizations, including the state-owned TASS, claimed in mid-May that talks were under way about exchanging “businessman Viktor Bout” for Mrs. Griner. Days later, the Russian foreign ministry dismissed the reports. American officials have not responded.

Bout is being held at the United States Penitentiary at Marion, Illinois. He is 11 years into a 25-year sentence for conspiring to provide material support or resources to a designated foreign terrorist organization, conspiring to kill American nationals, conspiring to kill American officers or employees, and conspiring to acquire and use an anti-aircraft missile. 

Bout has been accused of using his airline companies to move weapons to war zones around the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union, which has earned him the nickname “Merchant of Death.” He is said to have inspired Nicolas Cage’s character in the movie “Lord of War.”

Bout’s release has also been discussed in relation to the return of a one-time Marine, Paul Whelan, who was arrested in Russia in 2018. The federal district court judge who sentenced Bout, Shira Scheindlin, has supported such a swap, saying that trading Bout for the two Americans “would be great” and that if he were to be exchanged she “personally would not think that’s such a terrible thing or a miscarriage of justice.” 

Mrs. Griner’s letter has increased public support for her release, and placed further pressure on Mr. Biden. The White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said that the president had read the letter and that “he takes this to heart.” She declined to respond to a question about whether he planned to reply to the letter personally or is in communication with Cherelle Griner, Brittney’s wife. 

Some experts say the administration’s reticence may be a tactical move. If the Biden administration is looking to make an exchange involving Mrs. Griner, discretion could serve to keep her value as a Russian bargaining chip as low as possible. 

An authority on global hostage policy, Joel Simon, explains: “The paradox that everyone is facing is that publicity is a very good way of putting pressure on governments. On the other hand, you can increase the value of the hostage and the ability of the government that’s holding the hostage to extract more.” 

Mr. Simon adds: “The most important thing in these circumstances is a very strong relationship of trust between the family and the government that’s seeking to resolve the situation.” If that trust is present, public pressure could be eschewed as a strategy. 

A successfully executed exchange could provide grounds for optimism. In April, another one-time Marine, Trevor Reed, was released from a Russian prison in exchange for a Russian pilot jailed on drug-smuggling charges, Konstantin Yaroshenko. American officials said Yaroshenko’s deteriorating health was a major factor in the decision.