The left-wing Los Angeles district attorney, George Gascón, may have to pack up his office after the coming election as his first four-year term saw rising violent and property crimes, and reports of staff infighting.

Mr. Gascón survived two efforts to recall him during his four years in office. However, a poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, released Tuesday morning, shows the top prosecutor could be headed for defeat in November. 

51 percent of likely voters at Los Angeles, one of the most liberal counties in America, say they will cast their ballot for an independent who ran for attorney general as a Republican in 2022, former federal prosecutor, Nathan Hochman. Just 21 percent say they will vote for Mr. Gascón. The survey also found 28 percent of voters were still undecided. In the unlikely scenario that all of the undecided voters cast their ballots for Mr. Gascón, it would still not overcome Mr. Hochman’s 30-point lead. 

The poll director, Mark DiCamillo, says the race is “not even close,” and it “appears to be Hochman’s race to lose.” Mr. Hochman’s support has grown during the two months since the last Los Angeles Times-UC Berkeley poll, when the former federal prosecutor held a 25-point lead. 

Despite the dire polling, Mr. Gascón is striking an optimistic note and predicting the race will be much closer. In an interview with the Los Angeles Times, he said he “came from way behind in 2020.” While the Times noted that Mr. Gascón pulled off an upset win in 2020, it pointed out that he received a wave of endorsements and donations that year and did not suffer from anywhere near the polling deficit he now faces.

Since his 2020 victory, the Los Angeles district attorney has adopted various left-wing policies. On his first day in office, he implemented a policy that prevented prosecutors from seeking cash bail for misdemeanors and non-violent offenses. He rescinded that order in 2022 amid mounting criticism. He also directed top prosecutors not to seek the death penalty, charge juveniles as adults, or prosecute individuals for first-time non-violent misdemeanors. 

Mr. Gascón defended his left-wing policies in a 2021 press conference. He said they were working to “dramatically change a system that has served no one, not the victims of crime, not those who are accused, and not the public.” He also said the “tough-on-crime approach failed.”

Data from the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department shows violent crimes increased 8 percent to 2023 from 2019, although the number of homicides dropped through 2023. Meanwhile, violent and property crimes have seen an uptick in the first eight months of 2024. 

Besides criticism of Mr. Gascón’s policies, the district attorney’s office has made news for feuds between staff who disagree with his approach to criminal justice. The new policies were not received well by the deputy district attorneys in Los Angeles, who cannot be fired by Mr. Gascón, and many publicly endorsed the recall effort against him in 2021. 

A Los Angeles deputy district attorney, Jon Hatami, spoke to ABC7 in 2021 and publicly criticized the top prosecutor, saying, “George Gascon’s policies have not worked.”

“Releasing criminals, not charging crime does not work in Los Angeles. And it’s not making anybody any safer,” he added. 

Other deputies have accused Mr. Gascón of retaliation. In 2023, a jury awarded a top supervisor in the district attorney’s office $1.5 million in damages after it found Mr. Gascón transferred her to the parole unit after she raised concerns about his policies. In August 2024, a deputy district attorney alleged he was the victim of an “extensive retaliation campaign” after he was accused of “misgendering” a convicted killer. 

The top two reasons voters listed for why they would support Mr. Hochman in November, according to the Times-UC Berkeley poll, are a belief he will be “more effective in prosecuting cases involving violent crime” and to “reduce turmoil and bring needed change to the district attorney’s office.”

Neither candidate responded to a request for comment by The New York Sun. However, in a statement to the Los Angeles Times, Mr. Hochman said the results “match what I’ve heard from voters throughout L.A. County over the past year.”

“People do not feel as safe as they did before George Gascón took office, and they want a D.A. who will prosecute crime, restore balance, and improve public safety,” he added.

If elected, Mr. Hochman has promised to reject “extreme policies” and pursue police accountability while working to free people wrongfully convicted. He also told NBC Los Angeles that his “fervent goal as DA is to promote deterrence.”

“I will know I have created an effective criminal justice system if criminals are being deterred from committing crimes in the first place,” Mr. Hochman said. 

The Times-UC Berkeley poll is not the only survey showing that voters at Los Angeles and throughout California are looking for a tougher approach to crime. A poll from the Times found that 50 percent of voters at Los Angeles County support Proposition 36, which would impose stiffer penalties for repeat offenders.