Congressman Jim Jordan will head to the floor of the House on Tuesday morning hoping to capture the speakership, though as of Monday night, there were enough members opposed to his candidacy to stop him from winning the gavel he covets. 

At a closed-door meeting in the basement of the Capitol on Monday, members of the House GOP huddled to discuss the vote. If the fractious Republican caucus can’t elect a speaker, with aid to Israel and Ukraine hanging in the balance, “the GOP civil war in the lower chamber will increasingly be seen as a national security crisis,” according to Politico.

Despite the stakes, House Republicans have yet to muster up enough votes to elect Mr. Jordan, after Majority Leader Steve Scalise withdrew his candidacy last week, following the downfall of Speaker McCarthy.

Following Monday’s basement meeting, Congressman Mark Alford told the Sun that “there was a lot of passion, a lot of emotion” about why many members felt it was is necessary to elect Mr. Jordan as speaker. Mr. Alford himself pointed out that he was not originally a supporter of the conservative Ohio congressman, but now, as a Republican, he feels it is time to fall in line. 

Mr. Jordan also won a key endorsement from Congressman Marc Molinaro, a New York Republican who represents a district that President Biden won in 2020. Other members falling in line behind Mr. Jordan include a key ally of Mr. McCarthy, Congresswoman Ann Wagner, and the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Congressman Mike Rogers. 

Despite what progress may have been made by Mr. Jordan, he still lacks the votes to win. Congressman Tim Burchett tells the Sun that there are “at least” six GOP members who do not support Mr. Jordan, but guessed that some of them may be amenable to changing their vote. Mr. Jordan can only afford to lose four members on the House floor on Tuesday. 

Congressman Thomas Massie, both when he walked into the meeting and shortly after he left, told reporters that there was “around a 50 percent chance” that the House “will have a speaker by midnight.” 

Those who do not support Mr. Jordan have made it clear they either do not like his politics, they do not like the way this process has played out, or both. Headed into the Monday night meeting, Congressman John Rutherford told the Sun that he is a “hard no” on Mr. Jordan. Congressman Carlos Gimenez said on X that he would only support Mr. McCarthy, who he feels deserves to regain his post. 

Other members who are opposed to Mr. Jordan as of Monday night are Congressman Steve Womack, Congresswoman Marianette Miller-Meeks, Congressman Mike Kelly and Congressman Mike Lawler. 

The acrimony within the House Republican conference is unlike anything a governing party has seen in modern American history. Never has an entire chamber of Congress been forced to shut down because legislators could not choose a leadership team. The two-week vacancy in the speaker’s chair has already had  consequences. 

The Republican-controlled House still needs to write, debate, and pass seven appropriations bills before the government shuts down on November 17 — just one month from now. Any large aid packages to both Israel and Ukraine have also been stymied by the speakerless House, with legislation unable to move. 

Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart, an avowed conservative and veteran legislator, said he would be voting for the House majority leader, Congressman Steve Scalise, who was nominated by his party for the speakership before dropping out of the race due to a small band of opponents from within the GOP conference.

Mr. Scalise defeated Mr. Jordan for the nomination, and Mr. Diaz-Balart told reporters that he does not want to reward the bad behavior of conservative members who ended his friend’s campaign for the speakership.

“We had an election,” Mr. Diaz-Balart said of the Scalise–Jordan contest. “The guy who won is the guy I was with. … I’m not here to bargain. I’m here to move forward with the conservative Republican agenda.”

Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene, a fierce supporter of the GOP’s speaker nominee, told reporters as she walked into the meeting that those opposing Mr. Jordan do not have the “courage” to do so on the House floor where their constituents can see how they vote.

“When they’re forced to the floor in front of the lights and the camera and they have to say who they’re supporting, their constituents at home will know about it,” she said. 

Mr. Diaz-Balart made clear that such tactics will never work on him, however. “A little bit of advice: if you’re trying to get my vote, the last thing you want to do is try to intimidate and pressure me.”