Even as America is consumed by Tuesday’s presidential election, Tehran is threatening to launch an attack that could lead to tectonic tremors in the Mideast and beyond: Will a widely expected Iranian attack targeting Israel spell an end to the Islamic Republic’s regime?

While officials from Supreme Leader Khamenei on down are vowing a major assault on Israel, they are vague about its timing. It could come tonight or Tuesday, as Americans vote. It might be launched while ballots are being counted, or later, during President Biden’s lame-duck period.

Tehran seems to prefer a Vice President Harris election victory. A continuation of Mr. Biden’s policies are widely assumed to be more favorable to the regime’s interests than if President Trump were to return to office. Regardless of the election’s winner, an attack between now and January 20 is widely expected both in the region and in Washington.

In the event it happens, Israel could feel free to target Iranian assets that, in deference to Mr. Biden, it had avoided. Those could include nuclear sites or oil sector facilities — or the regime itself. 

“Israel could hit internal security bases of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps units charged with oppressing internal dissent,” an Iran watcher at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, Beni Sabti, tells the Sun. “Such strikes can give hope to the Iranian public and cause a chain reaction.” 

Over the weekend, an unidentified young woman was assaulted by dress-code enforcers for wearing a headdress improperly. She then stripped down to her striped underwear and brown bra, and walked the streets before a group of men and women pushed her into a car. She reportedly was incarcerated in a mental institution. 

“This accusation of mental instability is a familiar tactic by the Islamic Republic,” a Brooklyn-based journalist and activist, Masih Alinejad, wrote on her X account. Ms Alinejad recalled that the regime had targeted her as well, in 2014, accusing her of suffering from mental illness after she launched a campaign against mandatory use of the Hijab. 

Following the September 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, enforcers with the IRGC, the police, and Basij clamped down on a protest movement that seemed to threaten the regime’s hold on power. Arrests, hangings, and street beatings forced anti-regime activists to go underground. 

The girl-in-underwear meme might now revive the protest movement, which is “not as intense as it was two years ago, but an Israeli attack on IRGC and Basij bases could rekindle the uprising,” Mr. Sabti says. 

The Iranian leadership seems willing to risk such game-changing options, as well as strikes that could set back the Iranian nuclear program or economic assets such as oil fields. Israeli officials are reportedly preparing for an imminent Iranian attack. 

If so, “we won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we won’t be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one,” an unidentified Washington official told Axios over the weekend. To deter Iran, the Pentagon is dispatching attack submarines and B-52 bombers to the region. Yet, Tehran officials seem determined to call Washington’s bluff. 

“Some say we should fear the American B-52 bombers deployed in the Mideast,” one official, Mostafa Rostami, said Monday. “Weren’t these the same B-52s that fled from the Taliban in Afghanistan in such an embarrassing manner?” 

Mr. Khamenei issued his own threat: “The United States of America and the Zionist regime will definitely receive a crushing response for what they do against #Iran and the #Resistance Front,” he wrote on his X account over the weekend. 

Initially, Tehran officials dismissed last month’s Israeli air strikes as ineffectual. Yet, as they assess the extent of the damage, the rhetoric is sharpening. The October 26 strikes destroyed the regime’s Russian-made S-300 batteries and demolished much of its ballistic missile and drone arsenal, as well as their manufacturing capabilities. 

While much of Iran is now vulnerable to further Israeli attacks, the regime “seems in a bit of disarray, unsure what to do,” the top Mideast watcher at Kan News television, Roi Kais, said Monday.

Israeli officials nevertheless are not underestimating Iran’s remaining military capabilities. Movement of missile launchers to various parts of the country have reportedly been detected by Israeli and American intelligence.

Some of Iran’s unused ballistic missiles could be more difficult for Israel and America to intercept than the ones launched on October 1. The mid-range Khaybar, for one, can carry a payload of 3,000 pounds, and is designed to split into multiple warheads. Iran could also order proxies in Iraq and Yemen to attack Israel, or target Jewish sites around the world.

Much will depend on Tehran’s assessment of America’s next president. While its new vulnerabilities could spell the demise of the Islamic Republic regime — or at least its ability to threaten the region — the mullahs are defiant and seem willing to take new risks.