With Labor Day comes the unofficial beginning of campaign season, and while many loathe the season of bully pulpit posturing, stump speeches, and barnstorming, the holiday marks an opportunity to take stock of where the midterms stand and where they’re going.

In a midterm election, the opposition party normally makes big gains in both chambers of Congress. That was the expectation for this year, too, but that’s changed.

President Trump looming over everything and the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade appear to have turned the tide in the Democrats’ favor.

Major forecasters, which generally serve as a lagging indicator, have recently changed their forecasts in the Democrats’ favor to the point that neither party appears to have a lock on either the Senate or the House.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball is calling the race to control the Senate a toss up, with either party in a strong position to control the upper chamber. The Cook Political Report has a similar assessment.

In the individual races, Democrats seem to have an advantage in the Senate, considering that due to the Democrat vice president they need 50 seats to control the chamber while Republicans need 51.

The most competitive Senate races at the moment are in Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, where Democrats lead by 1 point, 1.7 points, and 4.3 points, respectively, based on an average of polling by RealClearPolitics.

If these numbers sound unusually good for the president’s party in a midterm election, that’s because they are. 

Weak candidates and abortion politics have dogged the GOP’s senatorial efforts this year, to the point where even Minority Leader McConnell has said they might not take the chamber this fall.

Republican Senate candidates have also struggled to rake in small donations this year compared to their Democratic opponents, which has led to Democrats dominating the airwaves for much of the summer.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican committee closely aligned with the minority leader, has prepared an ad blitz to triage the situation following Labor Day.

The fund has committed to $201 million in ad buys across Arkansas, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, and, most recently, New Hampshire.

With these most recent efforts, Republicans and Democrats have spent about the same so far this year — almost $400 million — according to the most recent Federal Elections Commission filings.

Democrats have edged out a lead in fundraising, however, with Republicans raising $505 million and Democrats raising $533 million for the 2022 elections.

Included in those fundraising totals is money intended for elections in the House, which have, much like the Senate, seen dramatic shifts in the past few months.

Going into the election season, Democrats have the momentum. Since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health ruling, Democrats outperformed expectations in special elections in the House. Before the ruling, Republicans had been doing so.

Democrats have delivered unexpectedly good performances in special elections in Nebraska, Minnesota, and New York, and won outright victories in a second New York district and in Alaska’s at-large district.

Although there is no doubt that these elections have put the GOP on the back foot, the question is whether the Democratic momentum will last.

Working in favor of the Democrats is that the abortion issue will probably not be resolved by November, and that a majority — 61 percent — of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

They also appear to have at least half of America on their side in the matter of Mr. Trump. According to a Quinnipiac Poll, 50 percent of Americans think he should be prosecuted for his handling of classified documents, compared to 41 percent who think that he should not be.

Working for Republicans is the American consumer’s sour mood. Inflation has receded slightly, but will remain an issue through the election. Crime, which continues to be higher than the pre-pandemic norm, will also dog the Democratic candidates, along with the historical precedent that the president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms.

Republicans also have a distinct advantage in the House, as Democrats are defending a modest 10-seat majority following the special election in Alaska.

With 218 seats required for a majority in the House and Democrats sitting in 221 of them, it means Republicans only need to flip three seats to win control of the chamber, well below the gains made in a typical midterm.

Republicans have another advantage in that they fared better during redistricting because most Democratic gerrymandering attempts were struck down by state courts. So, Republicans have around 195 safe seats compared to Democrats’ 165.

All this has resulted in expectations for a Republican majority cooling off, but not going away. Where once Republicans were considered a sure bet for taking the House, it now looks competitive, with FiveThirtyEight giving the GOP a 75 percent chance of controlling the lower chamber come November.