“The explosion of people’s anger in Iran happens exactly when their anger exceeds their fear in a given moment,” an exiled opposition figure, Reza Alijani, who spent seven years in Iranian prisons, tells the Sun in an exclusive interview.

The outbreak of direct war between Iran and Israel apparently wasn’t one of those moments.  The streets remained quiet. The Islamic Republic, seemingly emboldened, has ratcheted up the repression, particularly of women deemed not properly covered. 

Iranians were terrified after their country’s recent and unprecedented attack on Israel last month. As they worried and waited for the retribution which came some days later, one asked rhetorically, “How would you feel if your fate was being determined by the Revolutionary Guard on the one hand and Benjamin Netanyahu on the other?”

According to Iranians both inside the country and living abroad, there was widespread distress over the Iranian leadership’s recklessness. Its expensive and ultimately ineffective show of aggression toward Israel could have been the last straw for a population beaten down by growing levels of poverty, isolation and repression, but in the end people for the most part laid low.

Mr. Alijani says in the absence of mass protests, nothing will change in Iran.  Each time there are big demonstrations — as we saw back in late 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody — he says the regime is weakened.

With each paroxysm of violence, some members of law enforcement inevitably sour on the government as they become tired and disgusted at having to use brutality against fellow citizens.  After decades of these cycles of upheaval and its fallout, Mr. Alijani believes Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is more isolated than ever.  He points to infighting among the mullahs in the inner circle accompanied by rare, open expressions of discontent among the rank-and-file.

“But unfortunately,” Mr. Alijani says, “we do not at this time have a cohesive opposition.  People outside Iran are unable to generate a movement inside the country, while most activists capable of leading and directing social movements inside Iran are languishing in jail.”

He adds, however, that one never knows when a lifestyle or economic issue (like rising gasoline prices, something expected to happen) can light the spark that motivates people to say “enough is enough.”

Punitive measures meted out by the international community have backfired on some level.  Mr. Alijani says sanctions on people and entities associated with Iran’s weapons programs are just and effective. The broader sanctions, however, have ended up benefiting Iran’s shadow economy to a certain extent.

Sanctions busting is big business for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and regime friendly oligarchs.  The picture is even more twisted.  According to Mr. Alijani, “much of the money from Tehran that is destined for the likes of Hezbollah and the Houthis does not actually reach its destination but ends up in real estate, for example, in the West.”

Still, recent events show that plenty of money is reaching Iran’s brothers in resistance.

Mr. Alijani points out that none of the international pressure seems to be making Iran change tack.  “They’ve helped Palestinians launch precision guided rockets and missiles while simultaneously increasing the percentage levels of uranium enrichment along with its stockpiles in full defiance of all previous agreements with the West,” he says.

The number of millionaires in Iran nearly doubled between 2021 and 2022, according to Kayhan London, an independent Iranian  newspaper, which cited a study carried out by a Swiss financial services group. 

The World Bank reports that one in three Iranians now live under the poverty line. Mr. Alijani believes the real number is twice that.  He worries it is easier to crush people who are poor and hungry. 

As opponents of the Iranian regime struggle with how to make their cause more cohesive and energized and the rest of the world mulls how best to squeeze the regime while helping those who strive for democracy in Iran, Mr. Alijani has a straightforward suggestion: Iranians need unfettered access to the internet.

“This can be achieved by making the provision of VPNs or free enrollment in various internet packages such as the high speed Starlink available to the people of Iran,” he says.

Starlink is Elon Musk’s satellite internet provider, which has played a role in the Russia-Ukraine war.  Now there is a cat and mouse game with Starlink playing out over Iran. In the modern era, modems could yet prove to be more powerful than missiles.