The British foreign secretary, David Lammy, and his American counterpart, Antony Blinken, are visiting Kyiv today to discuss potentially lifting the existing restrictions for Ukraine to use Western-made long-range missiles inside Russia. 

American allies such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have signaled openness to easing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western-made weaponry to conduct offensive strikes at military targets in Russia, particularly as Russian attacks in Ukraine have intensified. Washington is hesitant, fearing escalation and that President Putin may threaten to deploy Russia’s nuclear arsenal. 

On Wednesday, the Kremlin immediately responded to the meeting, stating that Russia would take “an appropriate response.” It’s past time for America to stop falling for Russia’s psychological games and put the Kremlin on the defensive.

Last week two Russian ballistic missiles killed 51 people and injured more than 200 others at Poltava. Moscow also launched another devastating attack on Lviv, close to the border shared by Ukraine and Poland. 

A revanchist Kremlin responded with some of the fiercest barrages of missile and drone attacks following Kyiv’s surprise offensive in Russia’s western Kursk region in August. However, Ukraine could not defend itself from such a strike, as it lacks sufficient air defense systems to do so. 

Mr. Putin is not a military man — he comes from an intelligence background. He knows how to manipulate his opponents and how to exploit their vulnerabilities. Mr. Putin’s most effective tactic by far has been to use nuclear blackmail to play on Washington’s fears, stating that Russia is ready for nuclear war should America provide more significant aid to Ukraine. He has repeatedly used this tactic to successfully deter the Biden administration from scaling up military assistance.

Moscow is back at its deception game. Last week, Russia’s minister of foreign affairs, Sergey Lavrov, announced that Russia’s nuclear doctrine is “now being specified” and warned that the West was “playing with fire” that could cause World War III. 

In June, Moscow claimed that America had “become a party to the conflict.” Mr. Putin even hinted that he would deploy conventional missiles within striking distance of America and Europe if they gave the green light to Ukraine to strike targets within Russia. 

Russia has a long history of nuclear saber-rattling. In 2022, Russia warned the United States through a formal diplomatic note that “U.S. and NATO shipments of the most sensitive weapons systems to Ukraine were adding fuel to the conflict there and could bring unpredictable consequences.” 

Mr. Putin claimed that nuclear “Armageddon” could be on the horizon should America interfere too significantly in Ukraine. Western press then eagerly jumped on the most lurid scenarios of how Russia’s invasion could cause World War III. 

Yet, experience shows that Russia’s threats are not credible. In 2022 and 2023, out of fear of Russian escalation, the Biden administration was reluctant to send Army Tactical Missile Systems to Kyiv. However, when Washington eventually sent the weapons earlier this year, they did not provoke Moscow. 

Similarly, in 2023, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, warned the West of “enormous risks” if Ukraine received F-16 jets. Yet the West did provide Ukraine with F-16s, and they did not provoke Moscow. In May 2024, Mr. Biden allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to hit Russian targets near Kharkiv region. Despite Mr. Putin’s overtures about nuclear retaliation and global catastrophe, he once again failed to act. 

Ultimately, no matter what Washington does, it will not change Mr. Putin’s war calculus. If Mr. Biden thinks his reluctance to challenge Mr. Putin will lead to constructive peace talks and negotiations, he is sorely mistaken. 

Moscow has openly said that no negotiations are on the horizon. And if negotiations did somehow occur, Mr. Putin would likely use them to buy more time, strengthen his military, and continue the war. In Mr. Putin’s world, this is a protracted conflict that he believes he can win by outlasting the West’s willingness to aid Ukraine.

Mr. Biden’s fear of escalation, provokes escalation. A failure to impose costs on Russia will further embolden adversaries such as China, North Korea, and Iran — all of whom are calculating Mr. Biden’s resolve in Ukraine.