President Trump on Thursday will accept the Republican nomination for the office he once held, but a ruling due from Judge Aileen Cannon in the Mar-a-Lago case could curtail what he is allowed to declaim from the stage.

Special Counsel Jack Smith in March — oral arguments were last month —  petitioned Judge Cannon to modify the terms of Trump’s release in South Florida to “make clear that he may not make statements that pose a significant, imminent, and foreseeable danger to law enforcement agents.” Mr. Smith cites a “dangerous campaign to smear” the Federal Bureau of Investigation for what he maintains was its adherence to standard operating procedure during the Mar-a-Lago search. 

The prosecutor summons ”several intentionally false and inflammatory statements” as evidence for the need to limit Trump’s speech. The 45th president’s fundraising emails blared that agents were “AUTHORIZED TO SHOOT ME” and that they were “just itching to do the unthinkable.” He also ventured that agents were “locked & loaded ready to take me out & put my family in danger.”

Trump’s comments came after court documents disclosed in May that during the August 2022 FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago, agents were authorized to shoot to kill, and came armed with “ammo,” handcuffs, and “medium and large-sized bolt cutters.” It was also disclosed that the heavily armed agents had raided the bedchamber suite of Melania Trump, as well as the teenager Barron Trump’s bedroom.

In the uproar that followed, Mr. Smith tried to excuse the language, with his office saying it was standard legalese for any FBI raid, calling it “routine practice.” The FBI Firearms Manual mandates that unless specifically exempted, agents “must be armed when on official business. They are encouraged to be armed at all times.” 

Judges are empowered to modify the terms of a defendant’s release — the agreement that allows for liberty pending trial — as a feature of what the special counsel calls their “independent obligation to protect the integrity” of the proceedings. Mr. Smith urges Judge Cannon to find that “Trump does not have an unlimited right to speak.” The former president is subject to a gag order, albeit a partially lifted one, imposed by Judge Juan Merchan at Manhattan. Mr. Smith has secured from Judge Tanya Chutkan a gag order against Trump at the District of Columbia. 

Even this week, Trump has shown himself to be alert to the strictures of gag orders. On Thursday, amid the furor over President Biden’s mental competence, he took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to say, “I can’t believe that I am still under an Unconstitutional Gag Order by a Judge who truly HATES TRUMP. So totally UNFAIR. The whole system if [sic] RIGGED!”

It’s not clear if Trump is referring to Judge Merchan or Judge Chutkan. He has criticized Judge Merchan repeatedly for the partisan conduct of his daughter, a Democratic operative, until the judge gagged him from doing so further. Judge Chutkan, whose imposed draconian prison sentences on January 6 protesters, has said, in reference to Trump, that “presidents are not kings.” 

Mr. Smith’s request to modify the terms of Trump’s release rather than petition for a gag order could be evidence of a litigation strategy cognizant of appeal. Any ruling with respect to conditions of release would be immediately appealable to the United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit. That tribunal has already overruled Judge Cannon, during an earlier phase of this case, with respect to her appointment of a special master.    

During oral arguments over this issue last month, Judge Cannon pushed the government to furnish concrete evidence that Trump’s rhetoric could lead to violence, suggesting that she is skeptical of the imminence of the threat alleged by the special counsel. She recalled that prospective limitations on speech — called “prior restraints” — are constitutionally disfavored on account of the freedom of speech vouchsafed by the First Amendment.

That session, held at Judge Cannon’s courtroom at Fort Pierce, turned contentious when the jurist told one of Mr. Smith’s deputies, David Harbach, ​​“I don’t appreciate your tone.” He stammered that he “didn’t mean to be unprofessional.” Trump’s attorney, Todd Blanche, who has also been actively contesting Judge Merchan’s gag order, insisted that “if you look at the actual posts, there’s no threats to FBI agents. The attacks are against Joe Biden.”

The dispute over how Trump can discuss the case is just one of several matters pending before Judge Cannon, with opening statements nowhere in sight. She has heard arguments from the former president that Mr. Smith was appointed unconstitutionally — a line of argument seemingly endorsed by Justice Clarence Thomas at the high court. 

Judge Cannon also has decided to revisit the decision of another district judge, Beryl Howell, at the District of Columbia, as to whether Trump is entitled to attorney-client privilege for his interactions with one of his lawyers, Evan Corcoran. Mr. Corcoran’s memorializations of those conversations are central to the obstruction charges against Trump and two of his co-defendants, Waltine Nauat and Carlos De Oliveira.

The Supreme Court’s immunity ruling also looms large over the Mar-a-Lago case. Trump has asked Judge Cannon to schedule a rash of hearings over which acts in Mr. Smith’s indictment are official, and therefore immune, and which are unofficial and unprotected. He has also requested that the case be frozen while his immunity is mapped. That pause, though, does not include Mr. Smith’s effort to partially mute Trump — including, possibly, on Thursday.