How a Trump-Approved Scheme in Nebraska Could Tip The Electoral College Away From Biden
In one unlikely scenario, the state’s stray electoral college vote could deny President Biden re-election by forcing a tie in the electoral college.
Nebraska Republicans, under pressure from President Trump and his allies, are cooking up a scheme that could head off an Electoral College win for President Biden if everything falls into place.
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states in the country to apportion their Electoral College votes by congressional district, with two delegates being given for winning the statewide popular vote.
What this has meant in recent elections is that Democrats usually win a single elector from Nebraska, owing to the Omaha area, and Republicans usually win a single elector from one of Nebraska’s two congressional districts.
The plan, for Republicans, is to pass a bill in the Nebraska legislature to convert Nebraska back to a winner-take-all system, delivering Mr. Trump an additional electoral vote.
While an additional electoral vote typically doesn’t matter, there is a scenario in which it could decide the presidential winner this year.
If Mr. Biden wins all the safely Democratic states as well as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and Mr. Trump wins the safe Republican states as well as Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, the electoral college would tip to Mr. Biden.
If Nebraska were to change its rules in this scenario, however, the two candidates would be tied at 269 electoral votes each, as analyst Nate Silver lays out in his newsletter.
While Maine could also potentially switch back to a winner-take-all system to negate a change from Nebraska, it looks like this isn’t going to be an issue, at least in 2024.
Republicans in Nebraska attempted to pass the measure as an amendment to another bill Wednesday, but it failed 8 to 36 in Nebraska’s unicameral legislature.
Some Republicans in the state have signaled that they are not giving up and a few days remain in the legislative session, but State Senator Julie Slama, a Republican, downplayed those chances in a tweet.
“It won’t come up for a vote again. I know that’s what was promised, but there are no vehicles on which it could attach,” Ms. Slama said. “Winner Takes All isn’t moving in 2024.”
