Updated at 10:20 A.M. E.D.T.

The race for 10 Downing Street is over — for now. The former chancellor of the exchequer, Rishi Sunak, will be the next leader of the Conservative Party. Expectations are he will meet Charles III this afternoon to “kiss hands” and become the United Kingdom’s latest Tory prime minister.

Then again, too, Mr. Sunak might soon find himself asking whether it was worth the effort. At this point, failing a dramatic reversal of course, the fate of the Conservative Government is determined. “He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind.”

The Tories won in 2019 on a pro-Brexit platform. Since then, though, they have been backtracking on the promise of “maximal liberty and minimal government.” For the Conservative Party, the public backlash will be Biblical. 

Your Diarist had just filed a column Sunday evening, examining the likelihood of Mr. Sunak crowding out the ex-premier, Boris Johnson, for the leadership. Then breaking news over the wires: Mr. Johnson declared he would not be standing, after all. Echoing his statement not to stand in 2016 when, betrayed by Michael Gove, BoJo said, “I believe I have much to offer but I am afraid that this is simply not the right time.”

The Guido Fawkes tally sheet of candidate support gave the game away. According to the 1922 Committee rules, leadership hopefuls needed at least 100 nominations to stand. As of yesterday afternoon, it was Mr. Sunak at 153 nominations; Mr. Johnson, 76; and Ms. Mordaunt, 28 — with 100 undeclared.

Victory based on a simple majority of the 357-member parliamentary caucus — “50 percent + 1” — would require 179 votes. On this metric, Mr. Sunak was, at merely 26 votes shy of the leadership, well on his way to winning.

If the membership were to mirror his support in the caucus, the contest would be his to win. Mr. Sunak’s opponents would concede the race if they could read the writing on the wall, and clearly Mr. Johnson did. 

It was even odds if he could carry the membership in a run-off with Mr. Sunak. But, as BoJo realized, “You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament.” A handful of BoJo stalwarts had been looking to the Commons leader, Penny Mordaunt, to continue the fight against Mr. Sunak. It’s an indication of the rifts within the Conservative Party.

Can Mr. Sunak heal those wounds? He will need to address several crises — rising interest and inflation rates, spurring cost-of-living anxiety. Energy costs are soaring and supplies are limited, fueling fears of daily blackouts in January and February. Factor in unrest in Northern Ireland, secessionist sentiments in Scotland, and the existential implications of immigration.

That Mr. Sunak is co-author along with Mr. Johnson for these Conservative calamities, is ignored for the moment. To be fair, all of the candidates in these summer and autumn leadership contests wear Cabinet responsibility. The ex-chancellor is now leader, though, and will be held to account.

How will the Conservative Party take to its new leader? The “establishment” will be pleased that its candidate has finally climbed to the top of the greasy pole. There was consternation when Prime Minister Truss won against Mr. Sunak in the membership runoff.

As for the grass-roots party membership, it will cry “foul” once more. First, the rank-and-file were outraged when in July government resignations forced their man, Mr. Johnson, from office.

Then Ms. Truss’s mini-budget of “tax cuts for growth” was binned by the financial elite. Instead, she was compelled to restore the high tax policies of her opponent. Ultimately, the prime minister herself was pressured to resign.

Now, a canceled leadership vote has denied the membership its chance to determine who heads their party. Realistically, there was always the possibility that only one candidate would stand, regardless of “conspiracy theories” regarding the 1922 Committee.

Nevertheless, the membership will see this as a “stitch-up” and, in the words of Nigel Farage, as a “Globalist and Remainer” coup. Whom will Conservative Central Office enlist to canvass and volunteer at future elections, now that it has demonstrated its contempt for the voter?

Nor is Mr. Sunak safe from an unhappy caucus. While he could boast the support of a plurality of the parliamentary party, Mr. Johnson and Ms. Mordaunt also have their adherents. BoJo’s hopes for party unity to “come together in the national interest” is now a bridge too far.

There is no sign that Mr. Sunak faces such determined opposition as those rumored Conservative MPs who would resign the whip and sit as independent MPs were BoJo to resume the leadership. Yet it is not beyond expectations that Tory backbenchers may join with Labor’s leader, Sir Keir Starmer, in a vote of confidence in the Government.

They too want to go to the people for a fresh mandate. To them, it is the only way to clear the ground to move forward. A general election, in any event, is virtually unavoidable. Acrimony within the Conservative Party, general hostility in the House of Commons, and disgust in the country — the turmoil will make it inevitable.

A national poll would almost certainly see the Conservatives out of office and into outer darkness. For many party faithful, it is the only way in which a reformed Conservatism can rise phoenix-like from the ashes — though last week, Nigel Farage called for a third party to pick up the torch of conservative values.

“For the first time ever, there is the opportunity . . . to create something completely fresh and brand new,” said the man who lead the pro-Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum. After Boris’s announcement, yesterday, Mr. Farage’s successor at Reform UK, Richard Tice, tweeted “Thanks Rishi and Boris . . . member numbers soaring in last two hours.” In spite of themselves, Sunak and Johnson may have begun the rebuilding of a true British — a true Brexiteer — conservative movement for an independent Britain. 

BrexitDiarist@gmail.com

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This article has been updated from the bulldog.