Vice President Harris, who has seen a remarkable polling bump since becoming the Democratic nominee less than two months ago, is still failing to hit her mark with a critical demographic — Black voters, especially young Black men. If she fails to make up ground among them, she could narrowly lose most of the battleground states that will decide this election. 

According to a survey conducted by the NAACP, Ms. Harris is winning just 63 percent of the Black vote as of September, compared to President Trump, who takes 13 percent. 

While it may seem that Ms. Harris is dominating Trump among Black voters, the former president will — if these surveys turn out to be accurate — increase his share of the Black vote by more than 50 percent this year compared to 2020. Meanwhile, Ms. Harris is far below the level of support President Biden received from Black voters in the 2020 presidential election. Mr. Biden four years ago took 92 percent of the Black vote, compared to Trump, who won just eight percent. 

President Obama won 95 percent of the Black vote in 2008, and 93 percent just four years later. 

Other polling has shown the same lack of support for Ms. Harris among Black voters. According to a New York Times–Siena College poll released on September 8, Ms. Harris was winning just 78 percent of the Black vote, an overwhelming majority, but not nearly as much as when Messrs. Obama and Biden won when they ran in their own races. Trump had the support of 14 percent of Black voters in that same poll, nearly double what he won in 2020. Eight percent said they were unsure of their voting intentions. 

Ms. Harris — the first Black woman to lead a major party ticket — is struggling especially among younger Black men, who are a critical bloc for whichever candidate hopes to win states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In total, 26 percent of Black men under the age of 50 plan to vote for Trump, while just 49 percent said they plan to vote for Ms. Harris.