In the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, both Vice President Harris and President Trump are devoting vast sums of their resources and time to winning over the sliver of voters who will likely decide the fate of the presidential election. While polls have shown Ms. Harris taking a lead, she is failing — according to new polling — to win over a critical voting bloc: Older voters. 

A new poll from the American Association of Retired Persons shows the vice president lagging behind President Biden’s 2020 margins with voters more than 50 years old, who have been the highest propensity voters in most recent elections. The poll, which was conducted by the same firm that Trump’s campaign uses — Fabrizio Ward — finds that Ms. Harris is beating Trump by three points in Pennsylvania among likely voters, 50 percent to 47 percent. 

While that may seem encouraging for the Harris campaign, there should be cause for concern at its Wilmington, Delaware, headquarters. Trump leads Ms. Harris by eight points among voters over 50, a group that says they are extremely motivated to vote in November. In total, 91 percent of voters over 50 say they’re excited to cast their ballots, up from 85 percent who said the same when the AARP last polled Pennsylvania in May.

“Harris’s biggest weakness is older voters. It is the biggest share of the electorate, and she is behind,” the pollster who conducted the AARP survey, Bob Ward, told Politico.

Mr. Biden lost older voters by much narrower margins in 2020 nationwide than Ms. Harris is now losing them in Pennsylvania. Just four years ago, Trump won voters between the ages of 45 and 64 — which made up 40 percent of the electorate that year — by just one point. Mr. Biden lost voters over the age of 65 by only four points. 

The age demographic gap that is nagging Ms. Harris may prove to be especially consequential in Pennsylvania given that the state trends older than the nation at large. As of 2024, the Greatest Generation, the Silent Generation, and the Baby Boomers make up about 26 percent of the country’s population, but those same groups make up more than 33 percent of Pennsylvania’s population. 

Ms. Harris’s stance on issues may be better suited to the older generations, however. Her promises to protect Social Security and Medicare, cap the price of insulin and prescription drugs, and elder care could be features of her television advertising blitz over the course of the next five weeks. 

“While immigration, inflation and rising prices, and the economy and jobs are top issues among voters in Pennsylvania, the vast majority of voters older than 50 say Social Security, Medicare, helping people stay in their homes as they age, the cost of utilities and health care are all extremely or very important issues they will consider when deciding how to vote,” the AARP poll analysis states. 

More than 80 percent of voters over 50 say they support Medicare being able to negotiate lower prices with pharmaceutical companies, which is a legislative accomplishment of the Biden–Harris administration. 

Ms. Harris is already leaning into voters’ concerns about healthcare and prescription costs with a new multi-million dollar ad buy. The ad, released today, focuses heavily on Trump’s debate comments that he had the “concepts” of a plan for healthcare reform, without listing any specifics. 

The ad, titled “Concepts of a Plan” highlights what Ms. Harris sees as her and Mr. Biden’s accomplishments with respect to healthcare. It highlights the $35 per month cap on insulin for seniors, the $2,000 cap on prescription costs for seniors annually, and Trump’s efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act while he was president. 

“Access to healthcare should be a right, and not just a privilege for those who can afford it,” the vice president says. 

The ad was first reported by NBC News.