The Cook Political Report has released its first ratings of the 2024 election cycle and they are, banking on history, giving Republicans an edge in holding the lower chamber.

The senior editor of the Cook Political Report, Dave Wasserman, pulled 1996 and 2012 as the most recent elections similar to the upcoming 2024 election.

In those elections, President Clinton and President Obama unsuccessfully attempted to lead their parties to retake the House after two years of divided government. “Despite a government shutdown in 1995 and a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, voters opted to preserve a divided government — with slightly reduced GOP House majorities,” Mr. Wasserman writes. 

Under the leadership of Speaker Gingrich, Republicans in 1996 saw a net loss of two seats in the House, retaining their majority with 227 seats. In 2012, under the leadership of Speaker Boehner, Republicans saw a net loss of eight seats, retaining control of the House with 234 seats.

After winning a 222-seat majority in 2022, Republicans are more vulnerable in 2024 than they were in 1996 and 2012, though they could still sustain a loss of four seats and retain their majority.

Mr. Wasserman added, regarding the current debt limit fight, that “a true debt limit catastrophe could lead to a greater backlash against Republicans.”

This prediction runs counter to what some have speculated might be the first time in American history that both the House and the Senate flip to their respective minority parties.

In total, the Cook Political Report rates 42 House races as either leaning one way or as toss-up seats, which is fewer than the 52 seats filling those slots in the 2020 election cycle and more than the 24 in the 2016 election cycle.

Of the toss-up seats, nine are currently held by Republicans, many of which are in New York, and 10 are held by Democrats, many in North Carolina.

There are 14 lean-Democrat seats, 13 of which are held by Democrats. The only lean-Democrat seat held by a Republican representative is New York’s 3rd district, held by Congressman George Santos. There are nine lean-Republican seats all held by Republicans.

According to Mr. Wasserman, Republicans also stand to potentially gain an advantage through redistricting because they may get the opportunity to redraw temporary 2022 district maps in Ohio and North Carolina.

“In both states, Republicans captured state supreme court majorities in November, potentially allowing GOP-led legislatures to pass fresh gerrymanders for 2024,” Mr. Wasserman writes. “In theory, they could eviscerate up to seven Democratic seats — effectively doubling their current House margin.”