The former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley is hoping to pull off an upset against President Trump in the granite state on Tuesday, but she is promising to stay in the race no matter the outcome. Her long-term problem — even if she can win in New Hampshire — is that the voters she needs to clinch the nomination are overwhelmingly on Mr. Trump’s team. 

According to recent polling, Mrs. Haley has fallen far behind the former president after several former GOP primary rivals have come out in support of the former president. Last week, a Boston Globe poll showed that Mr. Trump leads Mrs. Haley by 16 percentage points. By primary eve, his lead had grown even larger. According to a poll from NBC News and the Globe, Mr. Trump led his former ambassador by 22 points. 

Mrs. Haley does not seem deterred by those numbers. On Tuesday morning, her campaign sent a memo to reporters outlining her path to win in South Carolina, carry a number of Super Tuesday states in March, and close the gap with the former president. “Roughly 50 percent of Republican primary voters want an alternative to Donald Trump,” the campaign manager, Betsy Ankney, writes. 

“Seventy-five percent of the country,” Ms. Ankney adds, “wants an option other than Donald Trump and Joe Biden. And while members of Congress, the press, and many of the weak-kneed fellas who ran for president are giving up and giving in — we aren’t going anywhere.”

Ms. Ankney says the candidate plans for a strong showing in her home state of South Carolina and in Michigan — two open primary states where unregistered voters and Democrats can cast ballots in the Republican race. 

Her top targets for Super Tuesday include states with semi-open primaries that allow voters to change party registrations and show up for Mrs. Haley at the ballot box. “Those include Virginia, Texas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Vermont, all with favorable demographics,” Ms. Ankney says.

The memo ends with: “See y’all in South Carolina.”

Mrs. Haley’s plan is ambitious, but she has the money to stay in the race for the foreseeable future. She raised an impressive $24 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, and raised another $500,000 in the 24 hours after Governor DeSantis ended his campaign. 

The GOP primary voters in states that will come shortly after New Hampshire are giving Mr. Trump overwhelming support in the polls, however. Nevada Republicans — the next voters who will caucus for their chosen candidate — are staunchly in Mr. Trump’s camp. An Emerson College poll from January 8 shows nearly three in four likely caucus goers will support the 45th president.

The Nevada caucusing is on February 8. In South Carolina, meanwhile, Mrs. Haley’s home state, the former president enjoys a 62 percent support rating, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. Mrs. Haley sits at just 25 percent. 

In Michigan, which will award its delegates in early March and which Mrs. Haley hopes to win, GOP voters are similarly backing Mr. Trump. The FiveThirtyEight polling average shows him winning the primary with nearly 70 percent of the vote. Every Republican member of Congress from Michigan has also endorsed Mr. Trump. 

The New Hampshire outcome could be the best state result Mrs. Haley has during this primary season. The open primary and the state’s affinity for retail politics — something that may boost Mrs. Haley given her dozens of town halls and campaign stops in the state — may endear her to voters, especially those unaffiliated voters, moderate Republicans, and conservative Democrats. 

The lack of interest in the Democratic primary may also boost her chances. Because President Biden worked with the Democratic National Committee to change the state primary calendar, giving South Carolina voters the new first in the nation status, the New Hampshire Democrats will not be awarding national delegates this year, which could drive interest in that primary down even though the incumbent president faces multiple primary challengers.