Election forecasters moved Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race more firmly into the Democratic column Wednesday as the campaign of the Trump-backed candidate, Doug Mastriano, floundered and his path to victory narrowed. 

Analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved the race to likely Democrat from leaning Democrat as Mr. Mastriano’s opponent, Josh Shapiro, appeared to be running away with the race, much to the chagrin of Republicans seeking other offices in the state.

An associate editor with Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Miles Coleman, tells the Sun that “if it gets to be too much of a blowout, yes it could hurt other Republicans.”

Some polls in the state put Mr. Shapiro 15 points ahead of Mr. Mastriano. Others have the difference slightly narrower, but all have the Democrat ahead by at least 10 points.

Mr. Coleman says Mr. Mastriano is simply less likable to Pennsylvanians than his opponent, the state’s current attorney general. Oddly, he says, Mr. Mastriano’s troubles might help some down-ballot Republicans.

“There are still pockets of the state that like to split their ticket,” he tells the Sun. “I would be interested to see if Republicans for the state legislature start to run as a check on Shapiro.”

Although they haven’t written Mr. Mastriano off entirely, national and state Republicans have turned a cold shoulder to the GOP nominee and acknowledged that he might not be the best candidate.

Mr. Mastriano’s campaign has been hamstrung by his involvement in the riots at the Capitol on January 6, which he attended; his harsh line on abortion; and, most importantly, a poorly run campaign, according to a political scientist at the University of Pittsburgh, Kristin Kanthak.

She tells the Sun that Ms. Mastriano’s campaign is remarkably absent from the public eye in Pennsylvania, and that “we’re seeing no attempt for Mastriano to increase his support outside his base.”

In her opinion, Mr. Mastriano has done little to try to alter his public perception since the primary.

Recent events, such as photos surfacing of Mr. Mastriano dressed as a Confederate soldier for a faculty photo at the Army War College, and his announcement last weekend that he was beginning “40 days of fasting and prayer” in the runup to the election, have done little to improve his public image.

Ms. Kanthak said a lack of endorsements from other GOP candidates in the state is the clearest signal yet that the party is distancing itself from its gubernatorial nominee.

“I’m not convinced that Pennsylvania voters are averse to voting for Republicans, but it’s a matter of who they put on,” Ms. Kanthak tells the Sun. “They’re saying that, ‘It’s okay to go to the polls and not vote for Mastriano.’”

The Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the state, Mehmet Oz, also has been keeping his distance from Mr. Mastriano, notably during a Save America rally in Wilkes-Barre hosted by President Trump, who endorsed both candidates, earlier this month.

Although both Dr. Oz and Mr. Mastriano spoke at the rally, Dr. Oz notably did not appear on stage with Mr. Mastriano, though they both independently appeared with Mr. Trump and other congressional candidates appeared with Mr. Mastriano.

Ms. Kanthak says that if Republicans throw Pennsylvania, they’ll be forced to “run the table” in competitive elections in other states to have any hope of taking control of the Senate.

A loss of the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, currently held by a Republican, would require that the GOP sweep the two toss-up elections where Democrats are up for re-election, Nevada and Georgia.

A political scientist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, Brian Arbour, says that in a typical election one would expect whatever party wins one toss-up election to win both, but this year Republicans have a weak link in Georgia.

While the Republican nominee in Nevada, Adam Laxalt, has edged out a modest lead in some polls, most observers are less confident in the ability of the Republican nominee in Georgia, Herschel Walker, to perform come November.

Mr. Walker’s campaign, while much better funded than Mr. Mastriano’s, has been dogged by gaffes and foibles, while his Democratic opponent, Senator Warnock, is generally viewed as a fairly uncontroversial candidate.

Arizona was also thought to be an easy pickup for Republicans going into the 2022 cycle, but the nomination of venture capitalist Blake Masters has hurt the party’s chances there.

Mr. Arbour acknowledges that Mr. Mastriano will have a hard road ahead in defeating Mr. Shapiro, but maintains that “there’s a path for the opposition party” due to 2022’s status as a midterm, the state of the economy, and President Biden’s low approval ratings.

“The polls look optimistic for Shapiro based on what the fundamentals are, but there’s a good reason to believe why Shapiro is doing so well,” he says. “He’s the only of the two candidates running a real voter contact operation.”

Dr. Oz is, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polling, outrunning Mr. Mastriano by about four and a half points, though they are both trailing their Democratic opponents.

Mr. Coleman credits this to Dr. Oz being both a better candidate than Mr. Mastriano, but also because “likability” matters less in Senate elections “because they’re sending them to Washington.”

With Dr. Oz only four-and-a-half points behind his opponent, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, Mr. Kanthak argues that Mr. Mastriano’s low-profile campaign might be the best way to proceed.

“There is something to be said for saying as little as possible about who Mastriano is,” she says. “Democrats learned lessons from their 2016 loss but folks like Mastriano didn’t learn from 2020, they pretended like it didn’t happen.”