With many races too close to call, it’s premature to guess which party will control the House in 2023. What is safe to say, though, that the long-touted “Red Wave” failed to materialize in the midterm elections.

As it stands, the GOP is approaching a House majority but it’s looking slimmer than expected, and Democrats still have open pathways to retaining their majority.

If all races break as expected, Republicans will be looking at a House majority with the number of seats in the mid-220s, while Democrats will be in the mid-210s. A majority in the House requires 218 seats.

As of early Wednesday morning, Republicans have netted three seats, with pickups in Georgia’s 6th, Florida’s 4th and 13th, California’s 5th, New York’s 3rd, and Virginia’s 2nd district. Democrats scored wins in Illinois’s 13th, Michigan’s 3rd, Ohio’s 13th and 1st, and North Carolina’s 13th district.

Democrats still have a path to the majority if they are able to outperform expectations in the west and in some of the races that are too close to call across the country.

While Republicans appear likely on their way to taking control of the House, they are almost certain to fall short of projections that were putting them around 230 seats. Forecasters and handicappers early Wednesday morning were beginning to give Democrats a better chance of keeping the House.

Either way, the wave that Republicans were hoping for didn’t arrive on Election Day, and whatever gains they do make look to be a fair cry from the 1994 midterms or even the Democrats’ 41-seat gain in 2018.

While it’s too early to say why exactly Republicans underperformed, the party has been dogged by doubts over what Senator McConnell called “candidate quality” up and down the ballot this year. 

It could prove that abortion motivated Democrats to turn out to vote this year or that expectations that young voters, who tend to be more liberal, would set records for turnout this year proved accurate.

With this close of a balance of power, there is also a good chance that the fights over redistricting during the past two years may have made the difference.

Unfortunately for the GOP, their timeline for dissecting the midterm results may be cut short by the announcement of a third White House bid by President Trump, who had suggested he might do so on November 14 or 15.

That timeline, however, could be thrown off as the former president was likely hoping to announce in the wake of a resonant midterm victory for Republicans.

Democrats, for their part, seem to have avoided their worst case scenario. With inflation running at a 40-year high and President Biden’s approval rating stuck in the low 40 percent range, it’s looking as though they’ve mitigated losses in the House and may even hold onto the Senate.

It’s not all good news for Democrats, however. A top-ranking House Democrat, Representative Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, is trailing in his race against a state assemblyman, Michael Lawler, and could lose his seat.

Democrats also lost by larger than expected margins in Florida, which is beginning to make it look like a very good night for the governor there, Ron DeSantis.

Mr. DeSantis has reportedly been mulling a presidential bid and is seen as one of the top competitors to Mr. Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination.

If tonight’s results hold, it shows Republicans apparently sweeping to victory on Mr. DeSantis’s coattails in Florida while they underperform across the rest of the country.

It also creates a major problem for Democrats to consider moving forward into a political landscape where Florida no longer looks competitive in statewide races.