On March 7, Democrats will hold their breath as President Biden delivers his State of the Union Address. Republicans are counting on a creaking speech they can contrast with the rising GOP star, Senator Britt of Alabama, who’ll deliver their party’s response. My instinct is that Mr. Biden can be expected to outperform expectations.

Republicans have highlighted every misstatement, stumble, and senior moment Mr. Biden has had during his tenure and Americans are primed to judge his night through that lens. Yet while he’ll never be confused with the Roman orator Cicero, the forum favors the Democrat.

The Constitution requires that presidents “from time to time give to the Congress information of the state of the union.” That no president has reverted to fulfilling that duty in writing — as was done by Presidents Jefferson through Taft — speaks to the power of a moment that television has turned into a global spectacle.

On April 7, 1913, the Sun highlighted President Wilson’s break with the written tradition atop its front page, reporting that it “made Congress gasp.” Wilson had decided “to change the practice of more than a century because he believes it is the best method of cultivating intimate relations with the legislative branch of government.”

Partisans, rather than do the hard work of defeating an opponent on issues, often fall into the trap of hoping these moments backfire. I warned about this Pit of Lowered Expectations in the Sun prior to the Pennsylvania Senate debate between the Republican, Dr. Mehmet Oz, and the Democrat, Senator Fetterman, in October 2022.

It was uncomfortable to watch Mr. Fetterman, who had suffered a debilitating stroke, in that debate. But Republicans had primed voters to expect far worse; so, despite Mr. Fetterman’s cognitive limitations, he went on to victory.

In the 2000 presidential race, both President George W. Bush and Vice President Gore avoided stumbling into the pit by flipping the script and raising expectations. 

Mr. Bush’s communications director, Karen Hughes, called Mr. Gore “the best debater in modern American politics.” The Democratic vice-presidential candidate, Senator Joseph Lieberman, said, “Governor Bush is a good debater.”

Today, you’d be hard-pressed to find a Republican who predicts a strong performance by Mr. Biden, one that lays out policy proposals with clarity. They overlook that Thursday will be a homecoming for a president who spent almost 40 years in the Senate.

Whatever price age has exacted, Mr. Biden will be in his element. “Speechifying,” defined by the Cambridge Dictionary as “to give a speech, especially in a boring way or in a way that shows you think you are important,” has been his trademark for decades.

As a senator, Mr. Biden watched eight presidents address the House Chamber. During President Obama’s two terms, Mr. Biden sat on the dais beside House speakers as vice president, just feet from the podium that the rest of the world can only watch from afar.

Other than the Oval Office, there is no more presidential setting. Ever since Wilson delivered that address in person for the first time since President John Adams in 1800, its transcendent effect has elevated even the weakest orators into statesmen.

At 41, Ms. Britt — the youngest Republican senator ever elected — is half the age of Mr. Biden, 81, the oldest president. No forum she chooses will have the weight of the Capitol, where even the loyal opposition applauds a president often. Her youth and gender will provide a contrast, but for a fraction of the audience.

Ms. Britt won’t have Mr. Biden’s crowd-pleasing entrance or the custom, pioneered by President Reagan in 1982, of calling out distinguished Americans in the gallery. Mr. Biden will choose his guests for their symbolism and speak of American greatness, daring Republicans to sit on their hands.

Expect all these factors to doom hopes that Mr. Biden humiliates himself. A more likely outcome is that he’ll earn a modest bump in the polls, hitting enough of the right notes to meet the low bar Republicans have set. He won’t be a Cicero, but on that night in that forum, it will be enough that he’s a president.