After the collapse of Chavism, which way will Latin America turn?

It wasn’t long ago that Venezuela, led by a fiery caudillo and dedicated to spreading its brand of populist super-socialism, boosted allies’ economies near and far with petrodollars. Hugo Chavez was spreading his Bolivarian revolution all over and times were good.

No más.

Spending lavishly to prop up like-minded allies’ hold on power, investing heavily in giveaways at home, and neglecting modernization of the aging oil industry did the trick. Venezuela, possessing some of the world’s largest oil reserves, is bankrupt.

History-making inflation rates are predicted to reach 1 million percent by year’s end. Supermarket shelves are empty. Hospitals no longer can or will tend to the sick. Gangs roam the streets. Think “Babylon Berlin” — with a sense that “Mad Max” is where things are headed.

Horrified Venezuelans — at least those who can — have fled for Colombian border towns and other neighboring countries.

Already in a hole, Chavez’s successor, Nicolas Maduro, is digging deeper. Last Friday he announced new economic measures: shaving a few zeroes off the local currency, the Bolivar; sharply raising taxes; significantly upping the minimum wage.

Expect further collapse of the remaining local businesses unable to afford the new dictated-from-above wages. Inflation will likely keep rising.

It’s not as bad yet in other countries that once enjoyed Venezuela’s largess or followed its model. Some, like Evo Morales’ Bolivia, even boast viable economies.

Take Nicaragua, though. At the height of Venezuela’s spending spree, in 2011, Caracas gave Managua $557 billion worth of subsidized oil. The ever-present local dictator, Daniel Ortega, spent this windfall on social programs to buy votes. Family members and cronies got rich while controlling the oil distribution business.

Fast forward. Last year Maduro cut oil deliveries to Mr. Ortega even as the Nicaraguan economy turned sharply down. Mr. Ortega’s food and housing subsidies vanished. Artificially low prices at the pump rose. Unrest followed.

Initially small anti-Ortega demonstrations were met with force. Now the country is one huge street fight. While Mr. Ortega’s goons try to quash the rebellion, criminal gangs roam the streets. Increasing poverty rates are exacerbating the violence. It’s an endless loop.

Cuba was another client of Chavez’s oil subsidies. Now President Miguel Diaz-Canel admits his country experienced anemic economic growth in the first half of 2018. He also just announced a new constitution that slightly strays from Soviet-style economic orthodoxy, but leaves one-party rule intact.

Mr. Diaz-Canel’s last name is different, but Castroism — the ideological blueprint for Chavism — remains the law of the land. And Cuba’s economic future is bleak.

Mr. Lula is now under house arrest pending legal maneuvering even after the Supreme Court upheld his conviction on corruption charges. His hand-picked successor, Dilma Rousseff, was also impeached on corruption charges. The country’s economy is weak and crime rates, high. Nevertheless, Mr. Lula still plans to run again for president.

Brazil is no Cuba, Nicaragua, or Venezuela. Its elections are truly competitive. But the likely reason incarcerated Mr. Lula leads in the October 7 election polls is that his toughest competitor is Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right racist and military rule-loving populist. Good luck getting out of Brazil’s doldrums with either of these two.

Latin America is crying out for new thinking and fresh ideas. Yet, Mexicans just voted in a Chavez wannabe, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, hoping this old dog will teach them new tricks. He won’t, and Mexico is likely to revert to past bad habits.

Half a decade ago the Bolivarian Revolution was on the march. Oil-flush Caracas was everyone’s sugar daddy. Havana supplied allies with medical doctors and goons for “security.”

Where regimes collapse, China, Russia, Turkey, Iran and other nefarious opportunists will try to fill the sugar daddy void. Brazil and Mexico, meanwhile, will decline until escaping from under the populist-socialist spell.

So what about us? Washington needs to revise and update the Monroe Doctrine, because our interests in the hemisphere go far beyond just immigration.

This column first appeared in the New York Post. The painting, by Jean-Adolphe Beaucé, is of the French intervention in Mexico, General Bazaine’s attack on the fort of San Xavier during the siege of Puebla, March 1863. Via Wikipedia.