If the positive trend that began last week in Lebanon continues, the world will have to give credit not only to President Bush, whose war in Iraq gave the initial push to the Cedar Revolution, but also to Prime Minister Sharon.

With the perception in the Middle East that the Fatah party was strengthened in Palestinian Arab politics after Israel withdrew from Gaza, things also began to move in Lebanon. Last week, the Lebanese army surrounded Palestinian Arab refugee camps, and by Saturday the Lebanese prime minister, Fuad Siniora, began to signal a new approach to the Palestinian Arab issue, conducting an unprecedented Beirut meeting with Fatah representatives.

Recognized as refugees by the United Nations, the 390,000 residents of 12 Palestinian Arab camps in Lebanon have the potential to undo the transformation of Lebanon into a democracy. The fragile ethnic equilibrium in Lebanon was broken in 1970 after “Black September,” when Palestinian Arab armed groups headed by Yasser Arafat were expelled from Jordan by King Hussein. They joined forces with those already in the U.N.-run camps since the 1948 war in Israel, and Lebanon soon descended into civil war.

The camps remained heavily armed even after the civil war ended and Syria began its occupation. After the Security Council forced Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon earlier this year, Syria intensified arms transfers even though the resolution demanded all factions disarm. Damascus-based terrorist groups run the camps, where gun-toting men are the real power brokers and where weapons – from hand grenades to surface-to-surface missiles – are in abundance.

Last week, as Lebanese troops surrounded the camps, camp residents and Lebanese officials paid lip service to the old standby, saying they reacted to fears of pending Israeli air attacks. But everybody knew that the Lebanese army’s move signals a bold shift in policy toward Syria and its terrorist proxies.

Mr. Siniora called on Syria to practice “self-restraint” and told the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation, “Our Palestinian brothers are visitors and guests and we have to have dialogue with them.” Press accounts from the region tell of frantic negotiations between Mr. Abbas and Lebanese officials, all made possible by the perception that in the aftermath of the Gaza withdrawal, new Palestinian Arab politics might be possible even in Lebanon.

Israel would never allow millions of Palestinian Arabs to flood the Jewish state, coming in from neighboring countries that have used them for decades as political pawns. But other solutions might be possible. Camp residents have not been allowed to work legally in Lebanon. Now, according to one hopeful Western diplomat who is active in the country, the thinking in the circles of Messrs. Abbas and Siniora is to allow them guest worker status or permanent residency.

“It will be like a green card in America,” the diplomat, who asked to not be named because such ideas could be explosive in Arab politics, told me. If that is true, one more of the longest-held taboos is about to break, and Arabs might begin to wake up from the fantasy of winning a war they lost 60 years ago and help themselves in the process. Lebanon, always a harbinger of regional trends, might lead the way.

It is too early to rejoice, of course. Lebanon has always been vulnerable to outside forces, and Syria’s tentacles are still long and strong. Damascus will continue to back the most destructive forces in the country. Other neighbors such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, which also have military, political, and economic proxies in the country, can also stop any positive movement. And internal Lebanese politics might also hinder any change in the Palestinian Arab status.

It is important, in the face of all these forces clinging to past solutions, that America, France, and the United Nations, which is trusted by Lebanese, seize the moment. Mr. Abbas could also use his newfound powers, made possible by Mr. Sharon, to take a giant leap to help his people by replacing their dreams with realistic solutions.

Mr. Sharon was unfairly held solely responsible when armed Christian Lebanese slaughtered residents of the Sabra and Shatila camps. Many will probably find a way to use him as a scapegoat again if the current Beirut-Gaza honeymoon sours. But will they laud him if his Gaza withdrawal accidentally leads to solving the Palestinian Arab misery in Lebanon? Don’t hold your breath.

bavni@nysun.com