TOKYO — Japan’s hawkish chief Cabinet secretary, Shinzo Abe, announced yesterday his intention to stand in next month’s leadership election, which analysts say he is virtually certain to win.

Mr. Abe, 51, is seen as a politician in the mold of his mentor, Prime Minister Koizumi.

He is expected to push ahead with reforms instituted by Mr. Koizumi to heave the world’s second biggest economy out of its long slump.

But some worry that the election of a nationalist may further damage Japan’s relations with its neighbors.

The Liberal Democratic Party holds a majority in both houses, and the elected leader automatically becomes prime minister when Mr. Koizumi’s term expires in September.

The Asahi newspaper called Mr. Abe’s election a virtual certainty after reporting that most of the main factions in the LDP were now behind him. He also enjoys impressive support among the public and the party’s grassroots.

Mr. Abe told supporters in his Shimonoseki constituency of his intention to stand for the leadership. His maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was prime minister between 1957 and 1960, and his father, Shintaro Abe, was the foreign minister in the 1980s. Mr. Abe “inherited” his father’s seat after his death in 1991.

Last month, Mr. Abe suggested that a first strike by Japan to pre-empt an attack could be viewed as self-defense. Article 9 of Japan’s constitution forbids it to wage war or maintain an army, but the interpretation of this has been stretched to allow a military force for the purposes of self-defense.

If elected, Mr. Abe will face a dilemma over the Yasukuni Shrine, which many believe glorifies Japan’s leaders in World War II. Messrs. Koizumi and Abe have visited the shrine.

[A planned visit by Mr. Koizumi to the shrine reviled by other Asian nations heightened tensions yesterday, with South Korea warning it would take diplomatic action and protesters in Tokyo rallying against the shrine for the third straight day, AP reported.

Mr. Koizumi is expected to make a pilgrimage to the shrine tomorrow, the anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia.

Visiting on such a sensitive date will likely worsen already strained relations with Japan’s neighbors China and South Korea, who bore the brunt of 20th-century Japanese aggression and who have repeatedly demanded that Mr. Koizumi halt his visits.

The Yasukuni Shrine honors Japan’s 2.5 million war dead, including war criminals executed after World War II. It played a role in promoting wartime nationalism, with Japanese soldiers commonly pledging to fight to the death with the promise to “meet at Yasukuni.”

It also hosts a museum attempting to justify Japan’s militarist past. The American ambassador to Japan, Thomas Schieffer, has said the museum, which paints the secret attack on Pearl Harbor as an act of self-defense, is “very disturbing.”]