While four female soldiers are expected to be freed in Gaza on Saturday, a last-moment name-switch by Hamas symbolized to Israelis the “Sophie’s Choice” nature of negotiating with terrorists: Which hostages will be set free and who will be left behind, perhaps to die, in a phased deal that could collapse at every turn? 

A list of four women that Hamas sent to Jerusalem Friday did not contain a living civilian woman, 29-year-old Arbel Yehud, who, according to agreement, was to be released Saturday. Hamas will nevertheless transfer to Israel tomorrow morning four women who have symbolized the cruelties of the terrorist group’s October 7, 2023, atrocities. 

A 20-year-old, Karina Ariev, as well as Daniella Gilboa, 20, Naama Levy, 20, and Liri Albag, 19, served in an Israel Defense Force observation post at Nahal Oz, near the Gaza border, on that day. Hamas terrorists, armed with GoPro cameras and long guns, documented the fear and bravery of the unarmed young women, as they were ordered around while other defenseless female soldiers were butchered in front of them.

Eventually dragged into Gaza, they spent the next 15 months there in unimaginable conditions. Based on testimonies of other young women who have been released earlier, those conditions involved sexual assault, denial of food and medicine, and other forms of torture.

Ms. Yehud, who was kidnapped on October 7 from her home at Kibbutz Nir Oz, was initially believed to be part of the Saturday release list. While the four women soldiers were held by Hamas, Ms. Yehud’s captors belonged to another Gaza faction, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Channel 12 television reports that an internal PIJ dispute prevented her release.   

The Israeli government characterized the Friday name switch as a “violation” of the 42-day deal that went into effect a week ago. Yet, Jerusalem declined to specify which of its own obligations, if any, it would alter in response. President Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is scheduled to arrive at Cairo early next week, and perhaps visit Gaza later, to ensure that the deal does not collapse.  

Following Saturday’s hostage release, Israel is scheduled to issue a list of 200 Palestinian prisoners it plans to let go. Among them are several convicted mass killers who were sentenced to life in prison. Some of those will be transferred to Egypt, and from there to other countries. If Israel reneges on releasing some of them, the deal could collapse, leaving hostages behind.

Following Saturday’s hostage release, Hamas is expected to inform Israel how many of the remaining 26 hostages it is expected to free during the deal’s 42-day first phase are alive. Following Saturday’s happy family reunion moments, Israelis are bracing for agony, as hostages whose fates had been unknown will be confirmed dead. 

Mr. Trump, who has taken credit for pushing the deal over the finish line, is now saying he is unsure whether it can be completed. “It’s a very tricky place, it’s very tricky,” he told reporters Thursday. “I will say, if something does happen, they will not be happy.” Mr. Trump did not specify who would suffer if the deal fell apart.

Israel and Hamas next week are scheduled to start negotiating the deal’s next phases, which could see an official end of the war as well as the release of the more than 90 remaining hostages. Those include living male soldiers, as well as a large number of dead bodies.         

Following last week’s start of the Gaza cease-fire, Hamas terrorists who had previously hid among civilians started to reassert control. They now don uniforms complete with the ubiquitous Hamas green headband, and they publicly execute suspected Israeli collaborators and others who defy their rule. 

That trend is expected to accelerate next week once Israeli troops start withdrawing from key Gaza positions as part of the deal. Gazans who fled the war to the south of the Strip, are expected to start returning to their northern homes.  

That population movement was one of Hamas’s top demands in the Doha negotiations on the deal. While seen as a humanitarian gesture, it will also allow terrorists to hide among the civilians, and to reinstate themselves in areas from which Hamas launched the October 7 attack on southern Israel. 

The deal also entails a significant increase in deliveries of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Along with the movement from the south to the Strip’s northern parts, these provisions are seen as aiding Hamas in tightening its control on Gaza. Critics say they are concessions that should not have been made before the last of the hostages is released. 

Blocking population movement to northern Gaza was “the last card Israel had in its hands, and it was a crucial Hamas demand,” an author and former Knesset member, Einat Wilf, writes on X. “Now it will be given away in the next few days, prior to the return of all hostages.”

Correction: 200 is the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released by Israel as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal. An earlier version misstated the number.