Although the 2024 U.S. Senate election map is largely advantageous to Republicans, the race in Florida, where Senator Scott is facing off against Congresswoman Debbie Murcarsel-Powell, might be one of the Democrats’ best chances to flip a seat this year.

While Democrats are on defense in reliably Republican states like Montana and Ohio, Mr. Scott is seeking re-election in a state that has trended toward Republicans, and it looks like it could be a closer competition than previously imagined.

A recent Florida Atlantic University survey suggested that Mr. Scott is opening the race leading Ms. Mucarsel-Powell by 47 percent to 43 percent. Typically, senators polling above 47 percent at this stage are on track for re-election, but Mr. Scott has a few things working against him.

First, Mr. Scott is singularly unpopular as a statewide elected Republican in Florida. A recent USA Today, Suffolk University, WSVN-TV survey found that Mr. Scott’s approval rating sits at 35 percent in Florida, while 49 percent of respondents reported having a negative opinion of the senator and former governor.

Beyond simple unfavorability, Democrats see a soft target in Mr. Scott. While most Republicans won’t openly express support for cuts to Social Security or Medicare, and many followers of President Trump even promise to protect the programs, Mr. Scott has been hammered for a proposal that could have resulted in ending the programs altogether.

In early 2022, Mr. Scott, a healthcare businessman who is the richest senator, published an 11–point plan to “rescue America” that included a provision that would sunset any federal legislation after five years. In 2023, Mr. Scott walked back the idea, saying he supported exceptions for the two programs as well as veterans benefits and national security legislation.

Democrats, including President Biden, seized on the opportunity to attack Republicans on the topic. In Florida, Democrats see it as fertile ground for convincing retirees to cast a vote against the incumbent this November.

Renewed support for Democrats has already manifested itself in the Sunshine State in the form of celebrations of Vice President at The Villages, a sprawling, middle class retirement community known, in part, for the widespread support for President Trump there.

“There is tremendous energy out there to retire Rick Scott — even seniors who are lifelong Republicans know they can’t trust a man who committed Medicare fraud and literally wrote the plan to cut Medicare and Social Security. We are building a coalition of Democrats,” Ms. Mucarsel-Powell tells the Sun.

Another issue working against Mr. Scott is that a measure to protect abortion rights up to the point of fetal viability, as determined by doctors, will be on the ballot this year. Abortion is currently banned in Florida after six weeks of pregnancy.

A measure to legalize adult recreational cannabis will also be on the ballot this year, and while the issue isn’t as politically salient as abortion, it probably doesn’t help the GOP.

Aside from these issues, Ms. Mucarsel-Powell is the first Latina nominated for the Senate by Democrats, and she has been hosting Spanish-language town halls and doing biweekly Spanish language radio appearances in Hispanic communities. 

Mr. Scott has responded by blanketing the airwaves with Spanish-language ads casting his opponent as a “radical socialist” and warning of “the evils of communism.” Ms. Mucarsel-Powell is herself an Ecuadorian immigrant, and her campaign has cited this in an effort to deflect these attacks.

At the same time as Democrats are trying to chip away at Mr. Scott’s lead, some analysts, like a pollster and political scientist at University of North Florida, Michael Binder, are skeptical any Democrat will be able to win statewide in a presidential election year.

Mr. Binder says that “outside a hurricane force wind,” nothing is likely to overcome Republicans’ registration advantage, even in the case of Mr. Scott.

Since 2020 Republicans have established a significant registration advantage in the state, mostly due to a drop in Democratic registration numbers.

Trump carried the state by about 3 points in 2022, and since then Republicans have increased their voter registration to 5.3 million voters from 5.1 million voters. At the same time, Democratic registration has fallen to 4.3 million voters from 5.1 million in 2020.

“I think the registration advantage is enormous. There’s a lot more  Republicans in Florida than Democrats than there used to be,” Mr. Binder tells the Sun. “You’re depending on winning huge numbers of independents but also turning some Republicans to vote in the other direction.”

Mr. Binder also noted that Mr. Scott has won statewide in Florida even before the Republicans enjoyed a substantial advantage in voter registration.

On the other hand, Mr. Binder did see some advantages for Democrats in investing in Florida, aside from a Senate Hail Mary. For one, Democrats enjoy a substantial cash advantage at this point and could struggle to deploy all their presidential money in just seven states before Election Day. Investing in Florida could force a GOP response.

“If you think about this as a resource allocation issue where if polling is close and you start investing money, maybe you force them to start investing money there,” Mr. Binder says. 

As for the schism that erupted in Florida politics from Governor DeSantis’s primary challenges, Mr. Binder sees Mr. DeSantis’s and Trump’s interests aligned at this point, noting that the governor might benefit from an administration appointment when his term is up or if Trump taps Senator Rubio or Mr. Scott for a position.

Mr. Scott’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.