Wisconsin’s Senate race, considered a critical one for Democrats to retain their Senate majority, has shifted to a “toss up” from leaning Democrat, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. 

The race between the state’s two-term Democratic incumbent, Tammy Baldwin, and a Republican businessman, Eric Hovde, has been tightening in the month leading up to the election, spelling trouble for Democrats as they fight to retain their 51-49 Senate majority.

Cook Political Report’s ratings has two other toss up Senate races — in Ohio and Michigan — and forecasts Montana’s Republican candidate, Tim Sheehy, to defeat the state’s Democratic senator, Jon Tester. 

President Biden is visiting Wisconsin on Tuesday to highlight “new actions from his Investing in America agenda” after campaigning in Pennsylvania, a rare level of involvement since he dropped out of the race that indicates how crucial the two swing states will be. Ms. Baldwin will be notably absent from Mr. Biden’s Wisconsin event, the Associated Press reports, noting that she has skipped four out of five of Mr. Biden’s appearances in the state this year — including even two events in her hometown, Madison. 

An analysis by Cook’s Senate and governors editor, Jessica Taylor, cited recent surveys from Cook’s Swing State Project indicating that Wisconsin is the “closest Senate race of the five battlegrounds polled” as Ms. Baldwin’s seven-point lead shrunk to only two percentage points. The analysis noted that although Ms. Baldwin still has a seven-point lead in Marquette Law School’s polling, internal polling from both parties has found that the race “is within the margin of error.”

“This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable,” Ms. Taylor wrote. “Wisconsin is one of the most evenly divided states in the country, and the 2022 Senate race was decided by one point.”

Cook’s analysis comes several days after Axios reported that Democrats in Wisconsin are ringing “alarm bells” over the rapidly-tightening race, as Republicans pour some $20 million into the state ahead of the election. 

“This race was always going to be a toss up, that’s why Tammy Baldwin is working every day to unite Wisconsinites of all stripes and win,” a spokesman for Ms. Baldwin’s campaign, Andrew Mamo, tells the Sun. “Next month, voters will reject California bank owner Eric Hovde’s insults, lies, and extreme policy positions and send Tammy Baldwin to the U.S. Senate to keep fighting for them.”

Mr. Hovde’s campaign didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment from the Sun. Over the weekend, he said he felt “really good about where the race is heading.” 

“As you’ve probably seen, a lot of attention’s coming to this state now. Wisconsin is the key battleground state. Whoever wins it will probably win the presidency,” he told NewsNation. “And if I can win then, you know, it will change the control of the U.S. Senate, not just for the next two years, but potentially the next four.”