One of the House’s most high-profile Republicans, Congresswoman Lauren Boebert, may be heading for an uphill re-election battle as her once — and likely future — opponent ekes out a narrow lead in early polling.

Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District wraps around the southern and western portion of the state and encompasses cities such as Grand Junction, Pueblo, and Aspen. The historically conservative area has voted for Republicans in every presidential contest for at least 20 years and has been represented by a Republican in Congress since 2011.

Ms. Boebert first won election in 2020, defeating the Democratic nominee, Diane Mitsch Bush, 51 percent to 45 percent. In 2022, Ms. Boebert struggled to win re-election, defeating an Aspen city council member, Adam Frisch, by 546 votes.

Now, it looks like Ms. Boebert may be entering the 2024 race as both an incumbent and, potentially, an underdog. In a new survey from Keating Research, Mr. Frisch leads Ms. Boebert by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent.

“Frisch secures majority support in this poll despite an 8-point Republican registration advantage, while Joe Biden trails Donald Trump by 5-points in this district,” the pollster writes in a memo.

The poll of 801 likely voters in the district had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, meaning that the results tracking the horse race are within the margin of error. Working to Mr. Frisch’s advantage is his significant lead among unaffiliated voters and Latino voters. Among unaffiliated voters Mr. Frisch leads by 17 points. Among Latinos he leads by 32 points.

Working against Ms. Boebert is her negative approval rating among her own constituents. Ms. Boebert’s approval is underwater by 11 points, with 53 percent of her constituents viewing her unfavorably and 42 percent viewing her favorably.

Even though Congress as a whole typically has a negative approval rating, most individual members of Congress have far better approval ratings among their own constituents.

A Gallup poll of registered voters found that most Americans, 53 percent, say that their representative deserves to be re-elected, while 41 percent say their representative does not deserve it. Ahead of the 2020 election, 60 percent of Americans said their representative deserved to be re-elected and 35 percent said they did not.

For comparison, President Trump has a net favorability rating of negative 8 points in the district, President Biden has a net favorability rating of negative 11 points, and Mr. Frisch has a net favorability rating of 8 points. Mr. Frisch, however, had lower name recognition than the other figures in the poll.

In a statement, Mr. Frisch said that “voters in this district are tired of Boebert’s extremism and want a representative who delivers common sense solutions for their families, their businesses, and their communities.”

“With this new poll showing us ahead of Lauren Boebert, I am more confident than ever that we are on track to win in 2024,” Mr. Frisch said.

Ms. Boebert did not immediately respond to a request for comment from the Sun.

Although it’s uncertain whether Mr. Frisch and Ms. Boebert will be the Democratic and GOP nominees, it’s clear from fundraising that Mr. Frisch will have a well-funded campaign against Ms. Boebert. In the second quarter of 2023, Mr. Frisch raised more money than any Colorado representative ever has in an off year — $2.6 million. Ms. Boebert raised $818,177.

Before the general election, Ms. Boebert will also need to defeat at least one primary challenger, attorney Jeff Hurd, who says he’s challenging her to provide “serious leadership for rural Colorado.”

“As an attorney, I fight for issues that matter to rural Colorado and to working families — things like lowering the cost of living, keeping electricity bills low, and making sure Coloradans have high-speed internet for work, for school, and for healthcare,” Mr. Hurd said in a statement.

A financial adviser, Russ Andrews, is also challenging Ms. Boebert in the Republican primary. The Cook Political Report rates the race in Colorado’s 3rd as a “Republican Toss Up.”