America’s third-largest city has been gripped by its highest crime rates in nearly 30 years, and the city’s Democratic mayor, Lori Lightfoot, elected as a police reformer, is paying a high price for it in her bid for re-election. 

Ms. Lightfoot was elected in 2019 as a tonic to the city’s perceived police crisis — a woman many hoped would bring accountability to the city’s law enforcement. In next month’s mayoral election, she is in danger of becoming the first mayor to lose her reelection bid since Jane Byrne in 1983.

Before taking over as mayor, Ms. Lightfoot for three years led the Chicago Police Board, which oversees disciplinary action for law enforcement officers. During her tenure at the CPB, 72 percent of officers accused of misconduct were fired, a track record that put her at odds with the former mayor, Rahm Emmanuel, who was generally supportive of Chicago’s police. 

She was supported by major liberal groups in her first election, but since she took office, the number of officers has decreased, violent crime has reached its highest level since the 1990s, and the citizens of Chicago fear for their well-being. Crime, not police reform, is top of voters’ minds in 2023.

According to a recent poll from the firm M3 Strategies — which is not affiliated with any campaign — Ms. Lightfoot is currently in third place behind a former Chicago schools superintendent, Paul Vallas, and Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia in the race. Messrs. Vallas and Garcia have slammed Ms. Lightfoot for her crime policies. 

At a debate between all nine of Chicago’s mayoral candidates, the issue of crime took up nearly a third of the 90-minute forum. Nearly three years after the nationwide George Floyd protests, candidates are now pledging to empower rather than defund the police. 

A city council member, Sophia King, opened with an unapologetic pro-police message. “Safety is the number one, two and three issue that is facing our city,” she said. “I know we can uplift the police.”

Ms. King’s proximity to the violence informs her ardent support for Chicago police. She has proposed drone surveillance of the South Side of the city she represents, which consistently ranks as one of Chicago’s most violent neighborhoods.

Since the beginning of Ms. Lightfoot’s tenure in May 2019, the number of sworn officers in Chicago has decreased by nearly 13 percent. To combat low recruitment numbers among law enforcement, Ms. King wants to hire a reserve police force of 1,200 retired officers — 200 to solve violent crimes and 1,000 to handle non-violent offenses. 

A state assemblyman, Kam Buckner, rebuffed calls for drones, but echoed Ms. King’s sentiments about empowering police officers to do their jobs. “Drones, militarization, and defunding the police are not the answer,” Mr. Buckner said at the debate. He called for lawmakers to “strengthen” law enforcement. 

Last year, Mr. Buckner released an anti-violence plan that called for investing in police investigations units in order to get violent criminals off the streets. Chicago has become “almost numb” to the “relentless drumbeat of violence,” he said at a press conference. He called for more homicide detectives to be hired; Chicago solves only about half of its murders every year. 

Since 2020, Chicago has suffered at least 700 murders every year — a number not seen since the early 1990s. Violent crime more generally is also up. 

According to the Chicago Police Department’s annual report, criminal sexual assault and aggravated assault both increased by more than 15 percent between 2020 and 2021. Between 2021 and 2022, burglary increased by 20 percent, theft by 54 percent, and motor vehicle theft by 114 percent — bringing the total number of crime complaints up by 43 percent in the last year. 

Ms. Lightfoot has blamed others for the precipitous rise in violent crime. In 2021, the mayor accused the Chicago district attorney, Kim Foxx, of not prosecuting gangs in the city, and opted to ask the U.S. attorney to step in when Ms. Foxx would not. 

Just hours after last week’s mayoral debate, Ms. Lightfoot once again blamed Ms. Foxx and her office for their lack of prosecutions. “They are handing out certificates of innocence like they’re candy,” Ms. Lightfoot said at a rally, according to Semafor. 

Despite the recent tough-on-crime rhetoric from the mayor, voters in the city feel more unsafe than ever before. According to a survey of voters over the age of 50, 88 percent have considered leaving the city due to concerns about their safety, and 89 percent say a candidate’s position on crime will be “very important” when choosing the next mayor.

The first round of the mayoral election will take place on February 28. It’s unlikely that anyone will exceed the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, which means the winner is expected to be decided in an April 4 runoff between the top two vote-getters.