Could Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy shock the world tonight in Iowa by —not necessarily winning — but coming in a strong second or third place?

The former biotech entrepreneur and author is polling at only 8 percent, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll. President Trump gets 48 percent support in the poll, with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis polling at 20 and 16 percent, respectively.

These numbers don’t look good for Mr. Ramaswamy. Yet Mr. Ramaswamy says the polls are flawed and aren’t accurately capturing his base, who are mainly younger and first-time caucus goers. In one video he posted to X of a packed campaign event, Mr. Ramaswamy asks the crowd how many people in the audience have gotten polled. Only one person raises his hand.

Mr. Ramaswamy’s X feed is filled with photos of packed campaign stops — the argument being that, like Mr. Trump’s campaign in 2016, crowd size matters. He has crisscrossed the state and held more events than any candidate in the race, completing a “full Grassley” — visiting all 99 Iowa counties — twice.

“Numbers don’t lie. But polls do. Iowa goes first for a reason – SHOCK to the system coming Jan 15,” Mr. Ramaswamy posted to X.

In the last week, a former congressman from Iowa, Steve King, and a prominent right-wing political commentator, Candace Owens — both Trump backers in the past — have thrown their support behind Mr. Ramaswamy. Both campaigned with him in Iowa.

“My instincts are telling me to support Vivek,” Ms. Owens posted to X, getting 17,000 likes. “I now have 3 children. The future of this country brings me grave concern. Vivek is the first GOP candidate that has assuaged that anxiety.”

Elon Musk is also weighing in. “My guess is that Vivek will far exceed the polls when the votes are counted,” he posted.

“100 percent,” Mr. Ramaswamy’s communications director, Tricia McLoughlin, tells the Sun about whether Mr. Ramaswamy’s support is being undercounted. “You’d have to have your head stuck in that snow pile to believe that we’re not having a late surge,” Mr. Ramaswamy told reporters in Iowa over the weekend. 

“They are absolutely giving us the Ron Paul treatment,” Mr. Ramaswamy posted to X.

The congressman and former Republican presidential candidate, Ron Paul, was written off by the press and GOP establishment in 2012 as a kook for his libertarian positions — sparring with Mayor Giuliani over the causes of September 11 and advocating for drug and prostitution legalization in GOP debates — but Mr. Paul came in a close third in the Iowa caucus, winning 21.4 percent of the vote. He had a young and passionate following. Mr. Paul ended up winning the most delegates from the state.

Mr. Ramaswamy is courting Mr. Paul’s voters — and younger Ron Paul, “red-pilled” acolytes online. When he didn’t qualify for the CNN debate last week, Mr. Ramaswamy appeared on Tim Pool’s YouTube show — popular with this crowd — instead. Several frequent TimCast guests traveled with his campaign this weekend.

Millennial and Generation Z progressives have a culture of voting. Just look at the Instagram and TikTok posts with “I voted” stickers on Election Day. Mr. Ramaswamy’s star is rising with the online right, but can they mobilize young voters to go outside in -11-degree temperatures to caucus for their candidate?

“If I was a Republican caucusing in Iowa, I would 100 percent support Vivek Ramaswamy,” comedian and default spokesman for the Libertarian Party’s Mises Caucus, Dave Smith, posted to X.

Mr. Trump is taking notice. “Vivek started his campaign as a great supporter, ‘the best President in generations,’ etc. Unfortunately, now all he does is disguise his support in the form of deceitful campaign tricks,” Mr. Trump posted to Truth Social over the weekend. “A vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side’ — don’t get duped by this.”

Instead of punching back, Mr. Ramaswamy is taking the high road, likely recognizing that many of his supporters also support the former president. “It’s an unfortunate move by his campaign advisors,” Mr. Ramaswamy posted to X. “I don’t think friendly fire is helpful. Donald Trump was the greatest president of the 21st century, and I’m not going to criticize him in response to this late attack.”

Mr. Ramaswamy has framed his campaign as “America First 2.0” and has been a staunch defender of the former president. His message, though, is starting to shift as voting begins this evening. 

“Are you serious about ending the war in Ukraine, or is that just a talking point about a 24-hour deal that you won’t say what it is?” Mr. Ramaswamy asked about Mr. Trump in Iowa over the weekend. “Are we actually going to follow through and pardon on day one every peaceful January 6 protester, even if it’s politically inconvenient, rather than throwing them under the bus as part of some other project?”

Mr. Ramaswamy is also now saying, “the ‘system’ won’t allow Donald Trump anywhere near the White House again,” and that the powers that be are propping up Ms. Haley to “trot their puppet into the White House. We can’t fall for that trap.” The implication is that Mr. Trump will be thwarted down the line, so a vote for him will only help Ms. Haley.

The Des Moines Register poll found that 88 percent of Trump supporters were “extremely enthusiastic” or “very enthusiastic” to caucus for him. By contrast, only 9 percent were “extremely enthusiastic,” with another 30 percent “very enthusiastic” to caucus for Ms. Haley. At a Mark Halperin-organized Zoom call Sunday night, Des Moines Register pollster, J Ann Selzer, said that she did not get enthusiasm numbers for Mr. Ramaswamy because his base of support was too small.

With snow and record-low temperatures in Iowa Monday night, candidate enthusiasm may be even more crucial to turnout this year. Mr. Trump will likely win, but a second or strong third place for Mr. Ramaswamy would be a huge win for his campaign. Enthusiasm for his candidacy is the X factor.