Among the bustle of presidential primaries on Super Tuesday, this week’s potentially most consequential election will be in the California Senate primary, where it looks increasingly likely that Congressman Adam Schiff and a former baseball star, Steve Garvey, will win the two top slots and face off in the general election in November.

In a typical presidential year, Super Tuesday carries huge importance for candidates looking to win delegates for their respective party primaries. This Super Tuesday presidential race is expected to be so uncompetitive that networks have elected not to do an exit poll, which could have provided insights into the parties’ respective electorates even in a relatively uncompetitive race.

A political scientist at John Jay College, Brian Arbour, tells the Sun that this “reflects the judgment that there’s nothing exciting or newsworthy in the presidential race.”

With presidential nomination competitions apparently all but over for 2024, the California Senate primary is filling the political intrigue void. The state holds top-two nonpartisan primaries, meaning candidates from both parties run in a single primary and the two top vote getters advance to the general election.

As a result, Mr. Schiff, the apparent frontrunner, has looked to boost the only GOP candidate in the race, Mr. Garvey, in order to snub the more left-leaning Democrats who might challenge him in the general election and force the party into a protracted intra-party battle ahead of November.

A large share of ad spending during the run-up to the primary has gone to supporting Mr. Schiff, with watchdog AdImpact reporting that $44.8 million of the $65.3 million spent has been to back Mr. Schiff. Another $18.6 million has been spent supporting Ms. Porter.

While Mr. Schiff has run ads aimed at boosting Mr. Garvey, Ms. Porter has in turn spent on targeting another Republican, Eric Early, branding him as “way too MAGA for California.”

A recent survey of California voters suggests that Mr. Schiff’s strategy in boosting Mr. Garvey may have worked. A survey from Emerson College, the Hill, and Inside California Politics found that Mr. Garvey is on the precipice of edging Ms. Porter out of the race.

The poll found that 32 percent of respondents preferred Mr. Schiff while 22 percent backed Mr. Garvey, 20 percent were for Ms. Porter, and 11 percent want Ms. Lee to win. 

“Both Garvey and Porter are within the poll’s margin of error for second place in a race where a top-two finish would place them on the ballot in November,” pollster Spencer Kimball said.

Mr. Arbour says the GOP primary might give Mr. Garvey a slight edge over Ms. Porter by bringing out some supporters of both President Trump and Ambassador Nikki Haley. Yet he says it’s still anyone’s game, especially considering that it’s harder to poll ahead of primary elections.

Aside from the results of the California Senate primary, Mr. Arbour says that he’s watching to see what faction of the Republican Party comes out victorious in down-ballot races in California and other states with congressional primaries tomorrow, like North Carolina.

“The other point I’d make besides which party wins is that primaries are about which factions within the party are ascendant and have power,” Mr. Arbour says.

While there won’t be any exit polling tomorrow, primary results in down-ballot races can give a sense for how divided the GOP is heading into the 2024 election. The associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for politics says the down ballot races are the most interesting of the day. 

“In terms of other down-ballot races I’m watching, North Carolina governor could have some intrigue. Josh Stein and Mark Robinson are the favorites, but how much of a protest vote will be in each primary,” Mr. Coleman tells the Sun. “Similarly, I’d be surprised if Jeff Jackson doesn’t get the nod for Democratic attorney general, but polling suggests that’s not a certain thing.”

Mr. Coleman is also watching the Texas Democratic Senate primary. He’s expecting Congressman Colin Allred to win but is watching for how state Senator Roland Gutierrez performs outside of heavily Hispanic parts of the states.

Mr. Coleman also cautioned against reading into the results from California too early, noting that we could be waiting for official returns for a while. He says he’s specifically watching the primary in Congressman David Valadao’s district.

“Considering how slowly California counts its ballots, it’ll hard to draw firm conclusions for a lot of races there, but if Dems get locked out of the top two against Valadao, that’ll be embarrassing for them,” Mr. Coleman says.