Survival Ideas for a Bear Market

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

In this increasingly dangerous bear market — each passing trading session makes it look like a free fall — where does one turn for protection? That’s the $64,000 riddle confronting investors. Clearly, nothing is invulnerable in a steadily falling market, but the name of the game in such an environment is to latch on to investments that can limit the downside.

In search of a bear market survival kit, I raised the protection issue with five pros, some of whom believe the market’s 20%-plus downturn since October’s Dow high of 14,164.53 is hardly the end of the dive.

A couple of our worriers favor inverse exchange-traded funds, which are designed to rise when a particular stock index or market sector goes down. They’re available in assorted indices, emerging markets, and such areas as real estate, technology, financials, consumer goods, and semiconductors.

One bear pitching such ETFs is the associate editor of the Florida-based newsletter Safe Money Report, Michael Larson. His top three picks:

oUltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS), which is designed to rise 2% for every 1% drop in the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index.

o Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG), geared to rise 1% for each 1% decline in the Dow Industrials.

o UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC), designed to rise 2% for each 1% drop in the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Index.

Pointing to the breakdown in such nonfinancial names as Boeing, Federal Express, General Electric, United Parcel Service, and United Technologies, Mr. Larson insists it’s a clear sign “the market is in real trouble.”

Fundamentally, he also says he worries about a number of problems that are not about to disappear overnight — namely, a worsening housing picture, lofty oil prices, and the viability of banks struck by big losses that need fresh capital. Likewise, credit problems, supposedly easing a couple of months ago, are now back with a vengeance.

The market could have a near-term bounce, he says, “but the big picture remains very bearish, and I would sell on every rally. It’s time for investors to shift to a bear market mentality and anyone ignoring this is doing so at their own risk.”

That doesn’t mean investors should run for cover, he says: “To the contrary, they shouldn’t take a bear market lying down, but rather recognize there’s a world of opportunities out there and to try to capitalize on them.”

Among them, he favors Zimmer Holdings, a maker of replacement joints; SPDR Gold Shares; Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, a master limited oil partnership that owns pipelines and storage facilities, and China Life Insurance.

A Warren Buffett follower, the head of the $300 million Vontobel U.S. Value Fund, Edwin Walczak, tells me: “If you find a good, reasonably valued stock, buy it, since you can never time the exact ups and downs of the economy or the market.” In the current nasty environment characterized by moderating growth and rising inflation, he says his strategy for battling the bear is to stick with companies providing the basic necessities of life, namely Philip Morris International, PepsiCo, and Nestlé. “They’re steady Eddies,” he says, companies that historically increase their earnings by between 8% and 10% a year and that should be able to generate similar annual returns.

The president of the $50 million Graham & Dodd Fund, David Rosen, who is up 2.57% this year, casts his investment ballots for materials (namely steel and copper) and energy as the best anti-bear strategies. His top picks: Nucor, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, Devon Energy, and Apache Corp. He also says he believes the market will have to await political clarity in the fourth quarter before it can move higher.

West Coast liquidity tracker Charles Biderman, a bear, says he believes oil at its current price will bankrupt the economy. At say $140 a barrel, oil equals about 17% of the take-home pay of working Americans on an annual basis, he says. “That can’t continue or the economy will go broke,” he says.

Mr. Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs Research, says he is convinced “the direction of stock prices remains down.” Accordingly, he’s short in his own account via some inverse ETFs. These are UltraShort Financial ProShares (SKF), a wager financial stocks will go lower, and UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares, a bet the Russell 2000 index will continue its skid. He’s also short Merrill Lynch, Yahoo, and Macy’s.

San Fancisco money manager Gary Wollin, who runs nearly $100 million in assets under the banner Gary Wollin & Co., says he sees Dow 10,800 as the next step down, a possible prelude to Dow 10,000, and he is maintaining cash reserves of between 25% and 30%.

In this market, he says, “the wisest strategy is a combination of high cash reserves and the bluest of the blue.” His top choices: Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, ExxonMobil, Chevron, 3M, and IBM.

dandordan@aol.com


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