Pampering Trend Has Wall Street Panting Over Pet Stocks
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.
You won’t find him on any Forbes list of the wealthiest Americans, but about five years ago, Purcey, a 2-year-old parrot in Los Angeles, joined the ranks of the country’s millionaires when he inherited $11 million from his owner, who had just passed away.
It’s a colorful insight into the extent to which pet owners will go to ensure the care and well-being of their beloved companions.
That’s only a tiny part of the picture. Americans last year spent an estimated $34 billion on pet care, an industry growing at an average of 3% to 5% a year.
Already, specialized holiday catalogs are circulating. They feature a wide variety of gifts for the pets of the rich and famous, and for the rest of us. Included are a limited-edition faux-jewel encrusted bed covered in luxurious royal blue velvet and lined, of course, in gold velour, for $350; an $89 mink vest, and a Fifth Avenue pet stroller with detachable carrier for $389.
Further, if you want Lucky or Lucy to rest in peace, St. Andrews Church in Staten Island will be happy to oblige. It has converted part of its adjacent real estate into a pet burial ground. Cost of a plot: $500.
It doesn’t stop there. If your pet requires therapy, a noted dog trainer, Bash Dibra – whose clients include the pets of Ralph Lauren, Henry Kissinger, Jennifer Lopez, and Alec Baldwin – will gladly provide it for your pooch at $300 an hour. This is chiefly for canines that suffer from rage, anxiety, or emotional problems.
To Wall Street, it all means, as Standard & Poor’s puts it, “Pet care stocks are the cat’s meow.”
In this context, it’s pitching a trio of companies that one S&P strategist believes offers prospective gains of 30% to 50% over the 12 to 18 months. They are:
* PETsMART ($24.94), the nation’s largest seller of pet food, supplies, and services, with more than 720 stores in America and Canada. 2004 sales: $3.3 billion.
* PETCO Animal Supplies ($21.53), the second-largest pet superstore operator, with 715 units. 2004 sales: $1.8 billion.
* VCA Antech ($26.66), the country’s largest chain of animal hospitals, with 400 in 34 states, and an operator of veterinary diagnostic laboratories. 2004 sales: $674 million.
Bear Stearns is another bull, especially on PETCO, which it views as “a compelling investment opportunity.” One analyst, Christopher Horvers, says he thinks pet superstores can reach an average of 80,000 people a store before significant cannibalization occurs, indicating, he says, the potential for roughly 2,400 such store locations. Accordingly, he sees three to five more years of productive expansion.
Now to the bottom-line numbers of S&P’s trio of favorites, kicking off with PETCO, which, it has pointed out, is well-positioned to gain market share from independent pet stores and supermarkets. Sales are projected to advance 11% in fiscal 2006 (ending in January), helped by roughly 70 new stores and same-store sales gains of about 4%. A big plus is an expected 20% increase in sales of services, led by grooming. Earnings are projected at $1.42 a share in fiscal 2006,versus $1.41 earned in 2005, before extraordinary items, and $1.67 in 2007.
PETsMART’s sales are projected by S&P to climb about 12% in fiscal 2006 (ending in January) from around 100 new stores and a same-store sales gain of 3.5%. It looks for gross margin to widen, benefiting from the company’s price-optimization software, economies of scale, and a shift from lower-margin pet food sales to sales of higher-margin accessories, supplies, and services. In addition, PETsMART is seen continuing its stock repurchase plan and possibly hiking its current $0.12 annual dividend in the coming year. Excluding a one-time gain, but including $0.11 a share of projected stock-option expenses, the company’s fiscal 2006 earnings are pegged at $1.16 a share, compared with $1.14 posted in fiscal 2005, and $1.44 in fiscal 2007.
VCA Antech’s revenues are expected by S &P to rise 23% this year, spurred in part by 10% sales growth from increased diagnostic testing by veterinarians. Likewise, the animal hospital segment’s revenues are projected to grow 26%. Also, thanks to an acquisition, the company is seen widening its margins and gaining economies of scale. Operating earnings of $0.94 a share are predicted this year, up from $0.76 in 2004, and another increase to $1.08, including stock option expenses, is forecast in 2006.