Federal Reserve officials agreed at their meeting this month that their next move in interest rates will be to raise them, while reaching no conclusion on the timing of such a decision, records of the gathering show.

“Although members generally anticipated that the next policy move would likely be a tightening, the timing and extent of any change in policy stance would depend on evolving economic and financial developments,” according to minutes of the August 5 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released in Washington.

The minutes yesterday show a debate over the magnitude of the inflation threat, with two groups of officials making different judgments on the impact of the recent slide in commodity prices. Policy makers also diverged on whether financial turmoil continues to pose the risk of a more severe credit crunch.

The Fed left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2% for the second straight meeting on August 5. At the time, traders estimated a 31% chance of at least a quarter-point increase by the end of the year, futures prices show. Now, that probability is 22%.

“There is a big split on the FOMC, no doubt about that,” a former Fed governor and senior economic adviser at Stanford Group Co. in Washington, Lyle Gramley, said. “We know there is a severe credit crunch, but it is difficult outside the housing market to pin down how much impact it is having on the economy.”

Yesterday’s release also showed that the president of the Philadelphia Fed, Charles Plosser, opposed creating a new program offering investment banks options on borrowing Treasuries from the central bank.

“Many participants noted that the financial system remained fragile, with some expressing continued concern about the possibility of an adverse feedback loop” where tighter credit conditions push the housing market even lower, the minutes said. “Several other participants suggested that the risks to the financial system had receded.”