British Conservatives Have Fallen Down a Rabbit Hole
Just ask Mr. Dumpty, our Brexit Diarist says.
Forget truth in advertising: What is the British Broadcasting Corporation playing at, televising a Tory “leadership” debate between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak and not having a single Conservative on the stage?
Surely I jest — and I do — but this just isn’t the conservatism as understood and practiced by traditional Torys. Instead, Britons are being served up “conservatism” via Humpty Dumpty in “Alice in Wonderland.”
“When I use a word,” Mr. Dumpty famously said, “it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.”
Considering more or less, Ms. Truss has 24 percent more approval from the party membership, according to a YouGov survey conducted at the conclusion of MP balloting: she stands at 62 percent; Mr. Sunak, 38 percent.
Seeing each contend against the other was hardly edifying. They had been warned not to tarnish the Tory brand. Hmmmm. A serious scuffle on policy might have burnished the brand, to its benefit. As it is, the debate went to a draw, in my opinion. It was a slightly smarmy Sunak against a trepidatious Truss.
The winner of the membership vote — to be announced September 5 — will be the next Conservative leader and U.K. prime minister. There’s the rub: Ms. Truss may be playing for the home crowd, Mr. Sunak for the bleachers.
An after-debate survey bears this out. According to Opinium Research, a poll of general votes showed a statistical tie, with Mr. Sunak at 39 percent and Ms. Truss at 38 percent. From a partisan perspective, however, Conservatives thought Ms. Truss did better (47 percent versus 38 percent for Mr. Sunak), while Laborites favored Mr. Sunak (41 percent versus 30 percent for Ms. Truss).
Plus also, too, the manner of Prime Minister Johnson’s defenestration is doubtless a factor. Mr. Sunak’s resignation over questions of BoJo’s personal integrity eventually brought down the premier. Ms. Truss, meanwhile, stayed loyal to her leader and remains in Cabinet.
Note, too, the general absence of divergence over policy. In essence, the electorate — Tory partisans and the general voting public — are being offered the Johnson Ministry 2.0. Only on the question of taxation is there substantial policy difference.
As to the question of “maximal liberty and minimal government,” Ms. Truss offers the better chance of securing Brexit 2.0. Your Diarist merely asks readers to remember the caveats respecting this new conservatism and the concurrence for continuity. The spirit of Brexit is honored more in the breach than in the observance.
Although she voted “remain” at the 2016 EU Referendum, Ms. Truss enjoys support from many of the party’s Brexit wing, primarily on economic issues. For me, attitudes on corporate income tax are the sine qua non of sound economics. She is promising to punt the planned rise in corporate income — to 25 percent from 19 percent — slated for April. Mr. Sunak stands by it.
Ms. Truss also has other tax incentives up her sleeve, such as to reverse the rise in National Insurance (a form of income tax), suspend “the green levy,” and introduce “low-tax investment zones.”
It is on these “fantasy tax cuts” that Mr. Sunak sharply differs with his opponent. Rather rich of him to raise the inflation question with Ms. Truss — he of the Covid furlough scheme that, a BBC analyst reminded viewers of the debate, introduced between 300 billion and 400 billion pounds into the British economy. Borrowing for me and not for thee, is Mr. Sunak’s message.
Tax cuts themselves, economist Julian Jessop points out, are not necessarily inflationary and might actually have a positive effect. A cut simply allows earners to spend their own money, removing bureaucratic middle-management. The London Sun suggests that Mr. Sunak’s own 37 billion pound support package — his last as chancellor — is being “‘eclipsed’ by rampant inflation.”
So much for the debate fireworks; on so much else, consensus. Nary a word on spending cuts and unanimity on the target (if perhaps not the timeline) on carbon net zero. China as a future security threat made an appearance, perhaps as a signal of stiffening resolve in respect of Russia. As for two major crises facing the United Kingdom, immigration and energy independence, crickets.
Hardly Tory, what? One wonders who is the audience for this apostasy from conservative axioms. The broadcast originated from Stoke-on-Trent, of the fabled “Red Wall” of post-industrial northern England and the Midlands.
Traditionally Labor voters, these constituencies supported Brexit and Boris Johnson, who, famously, asked them to lend Conservatives “their votes.” To be fair, even traditional Tories are thin on the ground. Witness the near-universal support for the Covid lockdowns that, according to one member of the Lords, inched Britain toward a “totalitarian police state.”
Such are the times more akin to “Wonderland” than many might wish. “The question,” Alice asks Mr. Dumpty, “is whether you can make words mean so many different things.” He corrects her: “The question is which is to be master — that’s all.”
BrexitDiarist@gmail.com