Biden Sees Modest Reprieve From Drumbeat of Bad Polls While Trump Searches for Cash

One analyst tells the Sun that polling seven months out is best interpreted as a ‘snapshot in time.’

AP, file
Presidents Biden and Trump. AP, file

President Biden is enjoying a relative rise in the polls as President Trump seeks to shore up his business in the face of large legal judgments and a looming Monday deadline to come up with cash. 

Over the past week, Mr. Biden has had a bit of a letup from the drumbeat of polling showing the 81-year-old incumbent flagging against his Republican rival.

One poll conducted in mid-March by Morning Consult found Messrs. Biden and Trump tied at 43 percent support. Another by Florida Atlantic University’s PolComLab and Mainstreet Research had the two tied among Americans, and Mr. Biden leads by three points among likely voters.

Yet another survey from YouGov and the Economist also put Mr. Biden ahead of Mr. Trump, 44 percent to 43 percent, even with attorney Robert Kennedy Jr. and scholar Cornel West in the mix, receiving 2 percent and 1 percent support, respectively.

At the same time, other surveys have shown Mr. Trump leading, such as a Selzer and Company poll that had Mr. Trump ahead of Mr. Biden by seven points, and another from Noble Predictive Insights and the Center Square showing Mr. Trump ahead by three points.

All told, the polls confirm what is widely known: that November’s election is looking to be close. Furthermore, the polls were national rather than focusing on the handful of battleground states that will decide the election.

The president of the election forecasting organization 270toWin, Allan Keiter, cautions against seeing these polls as anything other than a “snapshot in time.”

“Current polls might tell us how things would turn out if the election was today, but might be of limited predictive value for an election that is still over seven months away,” Mr. Keiter says.

The polls might be reflecting recent poor optics for Mr. Trump.

By Monday, the former president will need to post a bond of $454 million while he appeals a Manhattan court’s ruling that his businesses engaged in civil fraud by inflating and deflating the values of his properties in order to secure more favorable loans.

The judgment against Mr. Trump came alongside another $83 million judgment against the former president after he was found to have defamed a writer, E. Jean Carroll, for calling her a liar recounting a story of Mr. Trump’s sexual abuse of her in the 1990s in a dressing room at an upscale Manhattan department store, Bergdorf Goodman. Mr. Trump was found civilly liable for said abuse.

Mr. Trump is also engaged in legal maneuvering regarding four criminal indictments. While trials in three of the cases appear unlikely to begin before the election, a trial in the fourth — the hush money case involving the porn star Stormy Daniels — could take place this spring or summer.  

At the same time, Mr. Biden has quietly amassed a significant financial advantage over his rival, with major committees supporting Mr. Biden having around $155 million in the bank.

The major committees supporting Mr. Trump’s candidacy have about $76 million on hand and some of them are even losing money, in net, as Mr. Trump pays his lawyers.


The New York Sun

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