The scale of the environmental disaster caused by a series of leaks at a pair of state-of-the-art Russian  gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea is becoming clearer, as are clues that Russia sabotaged Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, marking  a perilous escalation of the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine.

The Guardian reported that between 100,000 and 350,000 tons of methane, a greenhouse gas 30 times stronger than carbon dioxide, had already erupted from the damaged pipelines just a day after the explosions, making it “one of the worst natural gas leaks ever” and, according to at least one industry authority, “catastrophic.”

The German newspaper Taggespiegel reported that one of the pipelines was so badly damaged that it may become “inoperable forever.” According to the AP, the Nord Stream pipeline leaks “could discharge as much as five times as much methane as was released by the Aliso Canyon disaster, the largest known terrestrial release of methane in U.S. history.” A Stanford University climate scientist, Rob Jackson, told the AP, “Whoever ordered this should be prosecuted for war crimes and go to jail.”

Did Moscow order or otherwise orchestrate what amounts to one of the most heinous acts of ecological destruction since it invaded Ukraine? As the Sun’s Benny Avni reports, it increasingly appears so and for numerous reasons, economic ones being chief among them. It is not possible, though, to point the finger definitively at Russia — at least not yet.

Even though the full extent of the damage will not be known for several more days, it is becoming clearer that Russia is behind the mayhem in the Baltic Sea, where its robust naval presence has long been known to the NATO alliance. The German magazine Der Spiegel reported that the CIA had warned Germany for weeks about possible impending “targeted attacks” on Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. If it turns out that President Putin did give the order to wreak havoc under the Baltic on Tuesday, what happened to another Russian pipeline over the summer may turn out to be an early indicator of what was to come. 

Part of the Trans-Siberian Pipeline, which pre-dates the pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea to Germany, runs through western Ukraine, from where natural gas is transported to Western Europe from Siberia. The strategic pipeline is partially owned and operated by Ukraine, and despite the war is still operational.

According to Natural Gas Intelligence, an industry news source, Ukraine warned in July that Gazprom, the Russia energy giant, without prior notice significantly boosted the pressure in the section of the Trans-Siberian Pipeline that runs along the Russia-Ukraine border. That, Ukraine’s gas transmission system operator said, could have caused major damage. 

At best, Gazprom’s shenanigans on land could be interpreted as a disruptive move to kick up gas prices in Europe. At worst, it could be seen as a dry run — even literally, as the Trans-Siberian is a terrestrial pipeline — for what just transpired under the Baltic Sea. Taken together, the incidents fit a pattern and point to a weaponization of energy resources by Moscow just as Europe heads into the winter season. 

Separately, Gazprom has said it could impose sanctions on Ukraine’s biggest energy company, Naftogaz, because of ongoing arbitration issues. That possibility has led to a further rise in gas prices in Europe.

In the meantime, exactly how Tuesday’s attack could have transpired under the sea remains a mystery, but further evidence of a deliberate act came from a seismologist at the Swedish National Seismic Network, Bjorn Lund, who told reporters that seismic data collected showed that the explosions occurred not under the seabed, but in the water above it.

Speaking on Greek state television, an honorary member of the Swedish parliament, Sotiris Delis, said that “the Swedish prime minister agrees with her Danish colleague that there are huge forces behind this sabotage and it is not just a coincidence.” He  added that “those who are not professionals cannot reach the pipelines because they are covered and protected. So the conclusion is that this thing was done for a reason.”

As the whodunnit aspect of the crisis lurched into Thursday, the Swedish Coast Guard announced it had found an additional leak in the pipelines, underscoring the scale of Tuesday’s attacks. A coast guard representative said that two of four “holes” in the pipelines are situated in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone. 

The gas is still leaking and Europe’s energy crisis grows more precarious by the hour. The Kremlin will try to flip the script, as is its wont, but the unfolding environmental disaster means this is hardly a phantom phase of Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine. If anything, it means one of the fronts has expanded to the Baltic Sea. It is a dangerous turn of events.