A year ago at Camp David, President Biden, Prime Minister Kishida, and President Yoon came close to forming a tripartite alliance against Communist China, Russia, and North Korea. They did not sign a formal treaty, but they were able to “affirm a shared vision for our partnership as well as for the Indo-Pacific and beyond.”

Now, looking back on the “principles” adopted at Camp David on August 18 of last year, admirers of that historic gathering worry about keeping the spirit alive as new figures maneuver to take over in all three countries. At a conference at Seoul commemorating the first anniversary, analysts called for making the results impervious to imminent changes in the three nations’ top leadership.

At stake, they agreed, was the need to make the “spirit of Camp David” an “institution.” Washington’s separate alliances with Seoul  and Tokyo have “kept the peace in Northeast Asia since the end of the Korean war,” said the former long-time president of the Pacific Forum in Hawaii, Ralph Cossa. “Further institutionalization of the U.S.-South Korea-Japan ‘virtual alliance’ will help ensure this continues to be the case well into the future.”

Participants in the conference agreed the most immediate concern was what President Trump might do if he wins — and whether Vice President Harris would perpetuate the legacy of President Biden on foreign policy. Trump “is likely to be unpredictable,” said the Asia-Pacific director at the Hudson Institute, Patrick Cronin “Harris is going to be surrounded by people of a progressive bent.” 

Advisers to both, Mr. Cronin said, “will have deep, dark internal debates” over “a new understanding as to how to go about North Korea.” The prospect of change in the White House, however, may not be the greatest  worry. President Yoon, a conservative who has endorsed joint exercises of American and South Korean troops, is seen by Koreans as “a lame duck” for his party’s heavy losses in National Assembly elections that leave him unable to win approval for many programs more than halfway through his five-year term.

It’s quite possible a “progressive” dedicated to a deal with North Korea will succeed Mr. Yoon, successor to the leftist Moon Jae-in, who blocked joint war games while looking in vain for reconciliation with North Korea’s Kim Jong- un.

“The momentum of trilateral cooperation is crucial for continuity of trilateral cooperation in the ‘Spirit of Camp David,’” said a professor at Sogang University, Kim Jae-chun. The reason is “a common threat perception against revisionist bloc countries” — a reference to Russia, China and North Korea standing together despite differences among them.

The least likely new leader to change policy would be the next prime minister of Japan, successor to Mr. Kishida, who is stepping down in a few weeks. The long-ruling Liberal-Demorcatic Party will choose a new party  president, who would then be elected as prime minister  by the LDP-controlled diet on September 27. 

Whoever wins is likely to spur Japan’s euphemistically named “self-defense forces” against rising threats from Kim Jong-un, who has  signed a new treaty with President Putin.

“Given that the US. is approaching a presidential election, efforts should be made to institutionalize trilateral cooperation and strengthen practical coordination,” said a professor from Doshisha University in Kyoto, Yuki Asaba.

“The success of the Korea-U.S.-Japan partnership depends on whether the words spoken at Camp David are backed by actions,” he added — a strong indication of Japan’s need to build up militarily.