Bucharest is not a capital that generates many headlines, but the rest of Europe is registering alarm as a little-known, far-right, and pro-Russian populist took a surprise lead in Romania’s presidential election Sunday. Results of the first round of voting showed Calin Georgescu on top, handily beating the incumbent prime minister, Marcel Ciolacu, a socialist.

This leaves Romania’s governing party without a candidate in the second round of voting, set for December 8, for the first time in the country’s 35-year post-Communist history. Mr. Georgescu will instead face the reformist candidate, Elena Lasconi, of the center-right Save Romania Union party. 

As of late Monday, Mr. Georgescu led the polls with just under 23 percent of the vote while Ms. Lasconi, a former journalist, garnered 19.17 percent of the votes in the first round. By a tiny margin, she beat Mr. Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party, who stood at 19.15 percent.

Most polls predicted that Mr. Georgescu would win less than ten percent of the vote in the first round. An independent, staunchly anti-NATO candidate described by some as an ultranationalist, Mr. Georgescu harnessed the power of social media and, in particular TikTok, which he used not only to boost his visibility — by some estimates his account has 3.7 million “likes” and 274,000 followers — but also to strenuously oppose aid to Ukraine. 

More momentum came from the public’s exasperation with corruption scandals enveloping Romania’s traditional political parties, coupled with accusations of bad governance. The leader of the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, George Simion, took 14.1 percent in the first round. Mr. Simion congratulated his opponent and stated that he was pleased that there will be a “sovereignist” in next month’s runoff. 

For his part, Mr. Georgescu called the result “a surprising awakening” of the Romanian people, stating that “The economic uncertainty imposed on the Romanian people for 35 years has become uncertainty for political parties today.” An agronomist with a specialty in renewable energy who has previously served as executive director of the UN’s Global Sustainable Index Institute, Mr. Georgescu has sought to reduce Romania’s dependence on imports and boost domestic food and energy production.

Politically he seems aligned with Eurosceptics like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, having previously stated that the EU and NATO do not adequately represent Romanian interests.  He has also said that the war in Ukraine is being manipulated by American defense companies and in 2022, he stated that the American anti-missile shield located in the southern Romanian village of Deveselu is part of a policy of confrontation and not a peaceful measure. 

His  position echoes that of President Putin and led to accusations he was receiving support from Russia. He denied those, saying instead that he felt “close to its culture” and described Mr. Putin as “a man who loves his country.”

In Romania, the president wields considerable influence in foreign policy. So should Mr. Georgescu prevail, it would be a veritable earthquake for the country of 19 million, a member of the EU and of NATO that has until now resisted the more nationalist-style leanings of of Mr. Orban’s Hungary or Robert Fico’s Slovakia.

Romanian voters, like many in Europe, are increasingly exhausted by the high cost of living and appear to be voicing preference for a break from the stability promised by traditional parties.  However, in the December 8 runoff, it is not just the economy but also neighboring Ukraine that will loom large. 

Mr. Georgescu has called Ukraine “an invented state.” He has also previously suggested that Moldova reunite with Romania, and is persona non grata in Moldova, which was in an ill-fated union with Romania between the two world wars. 

Little wonder that on Monday, Ms. Lasconi warned that Romania is now in “a historical confrontation between preserving Romania’s young democracy…and those who want to return Romania to the Russian sphere of influence.”

The Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov, referring to Mr. Georgescu, told journalists on Monday that “We cannot say that we know the views of this candidate regarding relations with our country” but that “it is evident that the current Romanian leadership is hostile to Russia.”

Few can forget how Romania was for many decades after World War Two one of the darkest folds of the Iron Curtain, its Communist dictator, Nicolae Ceaușescu, one of the cruellest and craziest leaders in modern European history. 

Today Romania is an important member of the North Atlantic Treaty, positioned strategically on its eastern flank. Russian drones have been known to crash into its territory and ongoing drone incursions have put an American air defense platoon on alert in the country. 

So the stakes will be high and the battle lines are already drawn. Ms. Lasconi said on Monday that her opponent “is   for Romania’s isolation, which he calls neutrality … and without NATO we are at the mercy of Russia.”

Mr. Georgescu countered that he is “completely dedicated” to the Romanian people. “We remain directly linked to European values,” he stated, adding, “I’m not an extremist, I’m not a fascist, I’m a Romanian who loves his country.”