When Secretary Blinken was asked who would govern the Gaza Strip following Israel’s battle to dismantle Hamas, he said a return of the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority made “the most sense.”

What he failed to mention is that the Palestinian Authority, weak and unpopular with its own people, has already said it has no interest in assuming power if it is helped by Israel.

The president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, who has governed semi-autonomous areas of the West Bank since Hamas expelled his forces from Gaza, is himself also unpopular with the Palestinian public.

This disconnect underscores the treacherous job that Mr. Blinken has ahead of him on a new Mideast trip just weeks after an earlier one to a region gripped by turmoil. As he did last month, Mr. Blinken will stress Washington’s support for Israel and try to prevent a wider Mideast war as he visits Israel and Jordan starting on Friday. 

The agenda this time, though, is more crowded and more complex as the conflict intensifies and the Biden administration grapples with competing domestic and international interests and anger.

He’ll push for the evacuation of more foreigners from Gaza and more humanitarian aid for the territory. He’ll press Israel to rein in violence against Palestinians Arabs in Judea and Samaria and will stress the importance of protecting civilians. 

The secretary of state will also be introducing a new element to the American list of priorities: the need for Israel and its neighbors to begin to consider what a post-conflict Gaza will look like and who will govern it.

American officials, including President Biden and Mr. Blinken, have said repeatedly that they do not believe an Israeli re-occupation of Gaza is feasible, and Israel agrees. What comes next has been little explored beyond brief comments Mr. Blinken made Tuesday in testimony before the Senate Appropriations Committee, where he floated the possibility of a revitalized Palestinian Authority and perhaps Arab states and international organizations playing a role in post-conflict Gaza.

Mr. Blinken will speak about “the U.S. commitment to working with partners to set the conditions for a durable and sustainable peace in the Middle East to include the establishment of a Palestinian state that reflects the aspirations of the Palestinian people in Gaza and in the West Bank,” a state department spokesman, Matthew Miller, said.

The change in messaging reflects a shift in the international view of the war, of which Mr. Blinken has heard plenty since his last trip to the region when he traveled to Israel and six Arab states — several of them multiple times — in a shuttle diplomacy mission that required numerous last-minute schedule changes.

Mr. Blinken’s itinerary after Jordan remains uncertain, though he will attend a Group of Seven foreign ministers meeting in Japan next week before traveling on to South Korea and India for much broader discussions, including on Russia’s war in Ukraine and China.

The shift in public opinion has been palpable. After receiving a wave of global sympathy following the October 7 attacks, Israel now faces widespread criticism for its military response, something that is being met worldwide by a spike in antisemitic violence.

As the situation in Gaza deteriorates, aides in Washington fear that they risk damaging ties with the Arab world and beyond if America fails to use its influence with Israel to keep what’s already a humanitarian issue from getting even worse.

Underscoring those concerns, Mr. Blinken will be flying into a diplomatic maelstrom between Israel and Jordan. The Hashemite kingdom on Wednesday recalled its ambassador to Israel and told Israel’s envoy not to return to Amman. Jordan’s foreign minister said the decision would not be reconsidered until after the Gaza operation is stopped.

Mr. Miller said America shares Jordan’s concerns about “the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza” and Mr. Blinken will make that a priority on his trip.

“Ultimately,” he said, “we believe that increased diplomacy is important and steps to reduce diplomatic channels are not productive to our shared goals of promoting a long-term solution to this crisis.” That can be translated as the state department thinking Jordan’s recalling its ambassador is counterproductive.

Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey, along with Gulf Arab nations, are on tenterhooks as anger — real or feigned — grows throughout the region. Before leaving Washington, Mr. Blinken met on Wednesday with the Saudi defense minister, whose country has effectively suspended American-mediated normalization talks with Israel. Neither spoke as for roughly 10 seconds they posed for photos.

Although there was some progress in securing the evacuation of foreigners, including a small number of Americans, into Egypt from Gaza on Wednesday, thousands more want to leave. Yet, even resolving that situation would still leave more than 200 Israelis and others held captive by Hamas.

In the meantime, Israeli officials have floated their own proposals for the future of Gaza in recent weeks, none of which include Palestinian independence. They do call for the creation of a buffer zone in northern Gaza meant to keep Palestinians at a remove from the Israeli border. Such a scenario would do little to address the long-term status of the impoverished territory.