Who Will Be Invited to the Big Dance?

It's that time again … time for the Madness.

College basketball's March ritual kicks into high gear this weekend, as the major conferences complete their season-ending tournaments. Then, on Sunday, the NCAA's tournament selection committee announces which 65 teams made the cut as it discloses the brackets.

Locally, the Big East tournament at the Garden has its semifinals today and the finale tomorrow. Based on appearances so far, I'd expect Georgetown to win it, but that's the beauty of the one-anddone tournament format. Surprises happen all the time, as we learned with Syracuse's buzzer-beating run to the title a year ago.

In the meantime, a lot of other questions remain to be answered, both in the Big East and nationally. The Hoyas have an outside shot at one of the coveted no. 1 seeds should they win the Big East tournament, but they'll need teams like defending champion Florida, Kansas, North Carolina, and Texas A&M to slip up in their conference tourneys. At the other end, teams like Syracuse and West Virginia will be sweating out selection Sunday, hoping for their names to be called.

All told, seven teams from the Big East should make it — Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova, Notre Dame, Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia. The last two are close calls, especially since both lost yesterday. But the 'Cuse probably sealed the deal by beating De-Paul on Wednesday, and I believe the Mounties' regular-season conquest of UCLA will get them over the hump despite their lack of other quality wins.

But among local teams, it figures to be a total shutout. Only tiny Central Connecticut State — the Northeast Conference champion — will be in the tournament, and only tangentially at that: They're likely to have to battle their way into the main draw against another minnow in Tuesday's play-in game.

So instead, let's pull the camera back and take a look at what's going on around the country. For starters, there's the battle for no. 1 seeds. UCLA (despite yesterday's upset to Cal) and Ohio State seem fairly secure as two of them, but the other two are up for grabs. Right now they would seem to belong to Florida and Kansas, but Texas A&M could easily hurdle the Jayhawks by beating them in the Big 12 tournament.

North Carolina, Georgetown, and Wisconsin are the next teams on the list, but all three will likely have to settle for no. 2 seeds. In fact, the Badgers may get knocked down further by the committee because they've lost center Brian Butch for the season — they're allowed to consider injuries when seeding teams.

A little further down, NBA fans will have their eyes on Texas and freshman phenom Kevin Durant. The Longhorns are likely to be seeded fourth or fifth in their region, which means there could be a showdown in the Sweet 16 between Durant and Ohio State freshman center Greg Oden — the two players expected to be taken first and second in this June's NBA draft if they choose to leave school.

Of course, the fun part of this weekend is at the other end of the bracket, where several teams are fighting like crazy to get into the tournament. The "bubble" includes about 10 teams who either have to win this weekend or have already lost and now are praying for intervention. The list:

Florida State (20–11 overall, 7–9 ACC): Winners of what amounted to a play-in game against Clemson yesterday, the Seminoles can seal the deal by beating North Carolina today. But as long as they keep things respectable and there aren't too many upsets in other conference tournaments, they're probably in. If so, that makes eight teams from the ACC — North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, and Maryland are already in.

Drexel (22–8, 14–6 CAA) and Old Dominion (24–8, 16–4 CAA): Most observers suspect the Colonial conference will get multiple bids this year, especially after George Mason stormed to the Final Four a year ago. I may be in the minority on this one, but I think conference champ VCU is the league's only team worthy of an invite and that both these teams should stay home. But chances are ODU, with a win over Georgetown and a season sweep of Drexel, will get the invite.

Missouri State (22–10, 12–6 MVC): I would much rather see Missouri State get in than one of the CAA clubs. They finished third in the perennially underrated Missouri Valley conference, have a prime nonconference scalp in Wisconsin, and blew WCC runner-up Santa Clara off the floor 78–51. But I get the impression they'll be on the outside looking in thanks to a lopsided loss to Creighton in the MVC semifinals. Ironically, Missouri State also got snubbed last year. If it happens again, the MVC will only get two bids (Creighton and Southern Illinois) after sending two teams to the Sweet 16 a year ago.

Mississippi State (17–12, 8–8 SEC), Arkansas (19–12, 7–9), and Mississippi (19–11, 8–8): The SEC figured to have several teams on the wrong side of the bubble yesterday, with the Razorbacks the most capable of changing their status in the next 48 hours. However, chances are the SEC will only send four teams — Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt — to this year's Big Dance in the conference's weakest year in memory.

Stanford (18–11, 10–8 Pac 10): The Cardinal are likely to be the Pac 10's sixth team after UCLA, USC, Oregon, Washington State, and Arizona, but to be sure they'll need to have beaten USC in the first round of the Pac 10 tourney (the game ended after press). Nonetheless, here's another team I wouldn't put in ahead of Missouri State — yes, they beat UCLA, but they also lost to Air Force by 34 and Santa Clara by 16, and finished 4-6 heading in to the Pac 10 tournament.

Kansas State (21–10, 10–6 Big 12): This is another disappointing conference, as only four Big 12 teams — Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas, and Texas Tech — are guaranteed entry at this point. K-State probably needs to make the tournament semifinals to make it five. It's odd to see a team with such a good record in a major conference sweating it out like this, but KState's only real noteworthy victories were at Texas and at USC.

Purdue (20–10, 9–7 Big 10), Illinois (22–10, 9–7), and Michigan (21–11, 8–8): While Ohio State and Wisconsin are hoping to leave the Big 10 tournament with a no. 1 seed, these three are just trying to scrape their way into the field. Michigan has to beat the Buckeyes today to get in, but the other two are likely to survive regardless of what happens this weekend. If so, they'll join the Buckeyes, Badgers, Indiana, and Michigan State to give the Big 10 six bids.

Air Force (23–8, 106 MWC) and San Diego State (21–9, 10–6 MWC): The Mountain West is likely to get three teams in the field, as one of these two will join UNLV and BYU. Air Force seemed an easy call a week ago, but is now in trouble after dropping its last four games — including a firstround MWC tournament loss to Wyoming. That leaves the door open for San Diego State to impress the committee with a deep tournament run (their opener against Colorado State finished after midnight), especially since they closed much stronger than the Falcons and beat Air Force by 21 in their last meeting.

jhollinger@nysun.com