Who Can Afford a 60-HR Man Next Season?

Some mysteries are no mystery at all. Take the ongoing speculation over whether or not Alex Rodriguez will be a Yankee next year. This is not, in fact, a mysterious issue. It was clear in January that he would opt out of his current contract, it became clearer when he had mounted one of the great displays of hitting the game has ever seen in April, and it is clearer still today, as he readies himself for a drive toward his 60th home run. Thus, absent a massive loss of face for the Yankees brass, he will almost certainly be playing for another team next year.

There are two reasons why this is clear. The first is that Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras, prefers whenever possible to have his clients set their value on the open market. The second is that the Yankees have loudly proclaimed that if Rodriguez does become a free agent they won't be bidding on him, a claim to which general manager Brian Cashman has publicly attached his name and which has precluded any negotiations on a contract extension that would keep Rodriguez in the Bronx. Because Boras's tactics are sensible and consistent, and because Cashman is not known for publicly lying, it would seem there is only one possible outcome here, absent a sentimental decision on Rodriguez's part to surrender control over his future in exchange for having his games called by Suzyn Waldman.

This leaves us with another mystery: the question of which team Rodriguez might play for next year.

Rodriguez is guaranteed a salary of $27 million next year. This means that we can assume a new contract will pay him at least as much. (After all, If Boras analyzes the market and determines Rodriguez won't be able to better that deal, he'll just stay in New York.) There aren't many teams that can afford to pay a player that much money, and this means that we can ignore most possible destinations.

The Chicago Cubs, for instance, could theoretically afford Rodriguez, but they have no significant money coming off their $100 million payroll this year, while they're locked into raises for all of their best players. They would have to commit to the second-highest payroll in baseball to bring Rodriguez to Wrigleyville, and nothing at all suggests that's going to happen. Similarly, the Los Angeles Angels seem like a good fit, but the only big salary coming off their books after this year is Bartolo Colon's; signing Rodriguez would raise their payroll by almost a third and make them nearly as big a spender as the Boston Red Sox. Unless owner Arte Moreno finds an oil well under home plate, this seems unlikely. It's one thing to be rich, and another thing to have money available. (This is a big reason why signing free agents to long-term contracts is generally a bad idea.)

Yankees fans aren't going to want to hear this, but the Boston Red Sox, the second-richest team in baseball, have an enormous amount of money to spend. Curt Schilling, Matt Clement, Mike Lowell, and Eric Hinske, among others, will all be free agents at the end of this year, leaving the Sox with few holes on their team and nearly $50 million to spend. After next year they'll be free of $28 million in obligations to Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek. In 2004, they demonstrated their willingness to go to near-absurd lengths to lay hands on Rodriguez, and of course little could be a more worthy expenditure than grabbing their top rival's best player to fill a position of need. It sounds sensational, but there truly isn't a better fit for Rodriguez, and the smart money looks to be either on him making his way to Boston, or on the threat of his doing so forcing the Yankee chieftains to relent and make a liar out of their GM. This will cause great glee for Sox fans either way.

After the Red Sox, the next-most sensible destination for Rodriguez is with the Los Angeles Dodgers. They're as rich as any team outside the American League East, they have real money to throw around, and they have a productive farm system that will allow them to replace their free agents from within. Simply letting veterans Randy Wolf, Jeff Kent, and Luis Gonzalez go this fall would free up enough to pay Rodriguez, and after next year, Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, and Derek Lowe will be off their books, freeing up another $30 million. Money, glamour, and freedom from the crushing pressure of the East Coast all make the Dodgers a favorite.

Once past these two teams, we rapidly enter the world of the less likely. The Detroit Tigers look like a possibility; if they let Ivan Rodriguez, Kenny Rogers, Todd Jones, and Sean Casey go after this year they could pay Rodriguez without really increasing their payroll, and their management understands the value of truly great players. The San Francisco Giants could also enter the fray if they decided not to bring Barry Bonds back, but their hands are cuffed to some extent by the huge number of deadweight contracts on their books. And finally there are the Mets, who should free up nearly $20 million after this season and could presumably boost their spending to Red Sox levels if they wanted to do so (it would take a $30 million increase in the payroll), but have decent players at both shortstop and third base, leaving open the question of where Rodriguez would play.

If anything, though, there being only two teams (other than the Yankees) with whom Rodriguez would obviously be a good financial fit makes it even more likely that he'll be gone. There were exactly no teams for whom Carlos Lee was a good fit at six years, $100 million, and he still got that much money to play for the Houston Astros last year. Two teams capable of meeting a high price is plenty for a good negotiator, and Boras is the best. What will the maestro be able to do with a 60-home run man? We may just find out.

tmarchman@nysun.com