Rookie of the Year Races Not What Was Expected

Coming into the 2007 season, there were some easy favorites for the Rookie of the Year award in each league. In the American League, Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka and Royals third baseman Alex Gordon got considerable build-up from almost every analyst. In the National League, I joined several of my colleagues in promoting Diamondbacks center fielder Chris Young as the sleeper candidate behind Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki or Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff. The local teams even had their own candidates, with the Mets and Yankees each relying on rookies in their rotation — Japanese import Kei Igawa in the Bronx, and former college star Mike Pelfrey down in Flushing.

Then the games had to be played, and as Zero Mostel might have it, a funny thing happened on the way to the diamond. An extraordinary number of highly-touted rookies have had especially rough introductions to the Show. New Yorkers saw both Igawa and Pelfrey get burned with alarming regularity in the course of earning demotions to Triple-A. Gordon's struggles at the plate for the Royals have been even more alarming. Hitting .188 AVG/.306 OBA/.303 SLG, he's struggling to get his average over the Mendoza line (or to keep his OBP above what we might call the Guillen line of .300, in honor of Ozzie Guillen's struggles to get on base). Although he's shown range and anticipation at the hot corner, seven errors in less than a third of a season has helped get him playing time at first base, something that definitely wasn't supposed to be in the cards. He's avoiding a demotion, but barely. Kouzmanoff was similarly cold in the early going, hitting an almost inconceivable .113/.171/.183 in April before breaking out to hit .321/.391/.625 in May, but given his defensive limitations, if Kouzmanoff isn't hitting, he isn't helping. Spared the horrors that have hobbled Gordon and Kouzmanoff, Tulowitzki and Young have been nondescript, playing key defensive positions well while contributing modestly on offense — Tulo's hitting .272/.350/.383, while Young has heated up to a nice enough .278/.317/.470.

And the most-touted rookie in baseball? Although Dice-K has been good for Boston, he hasn't been a world-beater, posting a relatively mediocre 4.43 ERA. He has thrown six quality starts (allowing three runs or fewer) in his 10 outings — good, but hardly ace material, and Yankee fans might take some small satisfaction from his failing to throw a quality start in either of his games against the Bombers. Great run support has generated his 7–2 record, as he's gotten seven runs or more from his teammates in seven starts. Nevertheless, a gaudy record and striking out a batter per inning is still the sort of stuff that might catch the electorate's eye, and the stability he's provided Boston in the rotation will no doubt count for something.

The rookie leader board for relative Values Over Replacement Player (VORP) listed below reflects just how surprising the field of first-year players has been. The absence of any of the expected candidates really going off has created relatively wide-open competitions for Rookie of the Year in both leagues. This might generate some surprise winners of the award in what statheads might refer to as the McCovey phenomenon, in honor of Willie McCovey's winning the award after breaking in with the Giants with only two months left to play in 1959, hitting a torrid .354/.429/.656. While I'm sure the final list of candidates won't have too many of the same names, it's worth looking at the players who have come up during the course of the season, and who have a chance of winning the award McCovey-style by finishing well without ever creating an initial bad impression.

The most obvious possibility is in the National League, where the absence of a Matsuzaka-like favorite not only helps players like Tulowitzki and Young, it creates an opportunity for Astros outfielder Hunter Pence. Not highly touted by all scouts because of what has been seen as an overly-complicated batting stroke, Pence's quick swing and good eye help him put good wood on the ball in a bandbox of a ballpark, one that rewards hard-hit balls in play. If the league doesn't adjust, he might be able to build on his solid first month (.365/.400/.606).

Pence should also get competition from relatively recent callups by the Giants and Diamondbacks. When San Francisco tabbed Tim Lincecum with the 10th overall pick in last year's draft, most talent evaluators thought he'd move up quickly despite a smaller frame (5-foot-11) than most scouts expect from a power pitcher who mixes mid-90s heat with a hammer curve. They had no way of knowing he'd embarrass the PCL as handily as he did in April, wining four of five starts while striking out 46 in 31 innings while allowing 23 baserunners and only a single run. That earned him a shot at Russ Ortiz's job in the Giants rotation when Ortiz broke down, and after a bumpy first start against the Phillies, he's cranked out three straight quality starts while striking out 20 in 22 IP. If the Giants are going to contend in the NL West, Lincecum stands to be one of the reasons why, and that's sure to draw that much more attention to his bid to be the league's Rookie of the Year.

In Arizona, the Snakes promoted Mark Reynolds, a human hitting machine whose eventual position might be up in the air — he's played short, third, second, and the outfield, but he's up now to fill in for Chad Tracy, and has done nothing but keep hitting since his promotion, pasting big leaguers (.435/.500/.804) in his first two weeks up. Whenever Tracy comes off of the DL, it seems unlikely that Arizona will excuse Reynolds from contributing to their pursuit of the NL West title. Similarly, the Brewers' recent promotion of third base prospect Ryan Braun won't go unnoticed, considering he's stepping into the lineup of a first-place team looking to make its first appearance in the postseason since losing the World Series 25 years ago. The former University of Miami star showed he has little left to learn in the minors after mashing at a .342/.418/.701 clip. Braun crushed a homer in his debut at Petco Park in San Diego, no easy feat, but one that might herald more to come.

In the American League, it's going to be a little more difficult for anyone to outshine Matsuzaka — but it isn't impossible. It isn't inconceivable that a prospect like third baseman Evan Longoria might come up with the Devil Rays and turn a few heads, but like rookies who have already arrived such as infielder Akinori Iwamura or center fielder Elijah Dukes, he'll have to contend with getting the voters to notice the Rays. It would also be premature to count out Alex Gordon, if only because he still has the talent to fulfill those initial expectations that led my colleague Nate Silver to predict a .282/.363/.509 season from him. It then depends on whether four good months might outweigh the ugliness of his first two.

Ms. Kahrl is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.