Raptors Just Might Stumble on Atlantic Division Win

So it has come to this: the depressed state of the Atlantic Division means we must consider the Toronto Raptors as serious contenders for the postseason.

It's not that there is anything wrong with basketball north of the border — regardless of what you may have heard from Vince Carter. It's just that the Raptors are in the first year of a rebuilding effort. Last season they lost 55 games, and in each of the two previous years they dropped 49, while in 2003 they lost 58. This time last year they were 8–22.

This isn't exactly the past showing you'd expect from a team destined to be a no. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, but the state of the Atlantic Division is such that no one team is going to win it and the other four teams will do a better job at losing it. So while the Nets and Celtics struggle with injury woes, the Knicks just plain struggle, and Philadelphia 76er fans follow Ohio State University hoops with great passion and interest, the Raptors are emerging as the team most likely to approach a .500 record. They are already heading in the right direction and, unlike the Knicks, they don't have as far to travel to get to mediocrity.

The Raptors were 12–16 going into last night's action and after a 3–9 start they've managed to keep their head just above water at 9–7, despite the loss seven games into that stretch of their best player, forward Chris Bosh. More impressive, they just returned from a four-game West Coast road trip where — sans Bosh — they managed a split.

What's more is that the Raptors probably want to make the playoffs. Although a high draft choice in a deep draft would be helpful, the excitement of playoff action at Air Canada Centre — a buzz that hasn't been felt since 2002 — would probably mean more. It would bolster franchise credibility not only with the fans, but with free agents.

The league's marketing people would probably love it too. Led by team president Bryan Colangelo, the Raptors comprise a ragtag bunch of castoffs; a Euroball vet; a comeback kid; a point guard who missed a full season with a spinal cord injury, T.J. Ford; the first overall pick in last summer's draft, 21-year-old Andrea Bargnani, and Bosh, an emerging superstar. It's a nice recipe for a Cinderella story, though in reality if NBA geographers had put Washington in the Atlantic Division when the league realigned three seasons ago, Toronto would be just another bad Eastern Conference team.

Can the Raptors continue their (ahem) winning ways? That they've held their ground under difficult circumstances without Bosh and his 20.5 points and 12.2 rebounds per game is encouraging. Also encouraging is their marked improvement on defense from last season. This year's Raptors are 17th in Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) at 107.8. Last year's team was a putrid 28th at 112.5. Bargnani's play is on the upswing. In his first month, the rookie averaged a paltry 7.4 points and 2.5 boards per game. This month, he's up to 12.2 and 4.6., and the 21-year-old Italian rookie will probably only get better. Forward Jorge Garbajosa, a veteran of the European leagues, has shown similar improvement going from 7.7 ppg and 5.1 rpg to 11.1 and 6.3.

The biggest gains have come from Ford, who has upped his scoring, assists, and shooting percentage (all without increased minutes) over his career norms. And, lastly, the coaching staff is making good adjustments. Early in the season, the Raptors were dubbed "Phoenix north," because of Colangelo's long tenure with the Suns and his intent to play uptempo. Coach Sam Mitchell even declared 100 shots per game as a goal. However, the Raptors uptempo game produced a lot of shots but not a lot of efficient scoring, so they've slowed the pace and improved their offense.

Still, this is a club with a lot of glaring weaknesses. Their team shooting percentage is still horrible; they don't rebound well, particularly not on the offensive glass, and they rarely get to the free throw line. It's somewhat odd — given that the Suns are the templates for Toronto — the Raptors' primary weaknesses are on offense. Of course, it's doubtful that Colangelo sat in his war room during the draft and said, "Let's win the division now." Although the Suns turned things around quickly, many key parts, particularly All-Stars Amare Stoudemire and Shawn Marion, were already in place. Toronto figures to be a two- or three-year job, even if a division title tumbles into their lap during the reconstruction effort.

With the division title in reach, Toronto should make a move or two to bolster their offense. Ironically, reacquiring Carter would help a lot, but given the bad blood between him and the franchise, that's unlikely. Nevertheless, Toronto should be a buyer as the trade deadline approaches; that and a potential division title should diminish the embarrassment of the Atlantic Division.

mjohnson@nysun.com