If Things Don't Improve, Yanks Must Reconsider Future

Jumping off the Yankees' bandwagon is rarely a wise thing to do. In two of the last three seasons, the team's performance was at least as bad as this year's aggregation, if not worse, and the Yankees would have been well-justified in throwing in the towel and trying to rebuild. Yet in both 2005 and 2007, the team stubbornly stood pat and rallied to make the playoffs. This season, though, the odds seem longer, and the long-term implications of trying to hang in the race are more damaging.

The Yankees are in the simultaneously enviable and frightening position of having a good deal of money come off of their swollen payroll after this season. Jason Giambi will be bought out of his $22 million club option for 2009. Carl Pavano will be bought out of his misbegotten contract as well. Several other Yankees will also see their contracts expire and become free agents, including Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Kyle Farnsworth, and LaTroy Hawkins.

With all of the above, there are strong arguments for not re-signing them, mostly because of lack of performance and age. Giambi is defensively inert, prone to injury, needs to be platooned, and has hit .191 over the last calendar year. Abreu may yet have more life in him, but he also needs protection from left-handed pitchers, can't go back on the ball in right field, and will begin his next contract at the dangerous age of 35. More importantly, while he is hitting about as well as he did last year, a fact disguised by the American League's offensive malaise, it is clear that his peak years are behind him and he can no longer be considered a top-flight run producer.

The bullpen pitchers are fungible, and the Yankees will probably be overjoyed to see both Farnsworth and Hawkins hit the road, but the two veteran starters are another matter given the problems Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes have had. Pettitte was excellent last year, but his age, injury history, and constant threats to retire make him a risky player to bring back for another year. Further, it remains to be seen if his recent struggles are simply a random fluctuation in performance or an indication that his time is up. On the opposite end of the performance spectrum, Mussina's revival, with his 5-0 record and 2.76 record in his last five starts, has been heartening, but he remains a five-inning, low-strikeout pitcher who will turn 40 this winter.

The Yankees may be able to replace these pitchers internally, even if Hughes and Kennedy never come around. The position players are another matter. The young stars the Yankees need simply don't exist in the farm system, and the free agent market is unlikely to provide them. Likely free agents of interest include first baseman Mark Teixeira, for whom competition will be fierce, outfielders Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn, both born designated hitters who will lose a good deal of their value when they get away from the offense-friendly parks in which they play, and another DH in Manny Ramirez, assuming the Red Sox buy out his $20 million option.

Even if the Yankees can get, say, Teixeira and Dunn, it won't make for much of a lineup. Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter will be another year older, another year more likely to be hurt, and another year less likely to put up a big season. Assuming that the hypothetical Dunn signing results in his becoming the primary DH in place of Giambi (and there is some chance that the Texan native Dunn would not have the slightest interest in coming to New York), an outfield of Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, and Hideki Matsui would be offensively unimposing and a defensive nightmare. Damon and Matsui's contracts end after next season, when the Yankees will still likely be short of necessary replacements.

Further, if this season has shown anything, it's that Robinson Cano is an excellent but very streaky player who can never be counted on to be the center of a team's offense, because his impatience and moderate home run power mean that, when he goes cold and stops hitting singles and doubles, there are no redeeming factors in his offensive game. Finally, for all the scorn heaped on Alex Rodriguez, his absence has shown just how weak the cast around him actually is. The Yankees have hidden a great many sins in his shadow.

All of this argues not that the Yankees should quit on 2008 today, but that if things do not turn around quickly, they have a compelling need to start making any possible deals they can with an eye toward future seasons and the importation of young talent. Note that even when the Yankees did make the playoffs in 2005 and 2007, they didn't go far once they got there, bowing out in the division series both times. Holding on for the dubious reward of a first-round washout could mean many years in the wilderness. It's not worth it.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of "Forging Genius," a biography of Casey Stengel.