Nets' Close Losses Mask Deeper Problems

This is getting painful. Not to mention redundant. Monday was the second consecutive game the Nets tied the game with a late 3-pointer, only to lose in overtime after a last-second shot didn't go their way. It's been a familiar theme these last two weeks — six of the Nets' past nine games have come down to the final second, and only one has turned out in New Jersey's favor.

Considering that the recent ledger now includes five heartbreaking losses and two of the more traditional lopsided variety, it's not a time of great optimism for Nets fans. Talk of a division title after recent road victories in Denver and Utah has faded quickly, replaced by thoughts of trading Vince Carter and Jason Kidd, taking their lottery medicine and starting anew.

What's so unusual about the Nets' recent run of bad luck is that, in the big picture, they haven't been unlucky. Yes, New Jersey should have expected to split these six buzzer games rather than go 1–5, and their overall record is an unfortunate 7–16 in games decided by six points or less. Since this is usually a function of luck rather than skill, one could argue that the Nets ought to be more like 11–12 in these games, in which case they'd be 26–23 right now and nobody would think anything was amiss.

But in the big picture, it doesn't work out that way. A strong indicator of quality is how teams fare in blowouts — a great team will usually have a big chunk of one-sided wins and few losses of a similar scale. The Suns, for instance, have yet to lose a game by double figures all season but have won 19.

New Jersey, on the other hand, has lost by 33 and 24 just in the past week. They have five wins by more than 10 points all year, against nine losses by similar margins. Overall, they've given up more points than they've scored this year, with an average scoring margin of -1.3 points per game. Points scored and points allowed have a predictable relationship with wins and losses; New Jersey's translates to a record of 22–27, which is exactly its mark entering play tonight. In other words, they haven't been the slightest bit unlucky to end up where they are

(For those who are curious, I did this with the "Pythagorean 16.5 method" — take the teams' points scored to the 16.5 power, divide by the sum of points scored and points allowed to the 16.5 power, and multiply by games played).

In fact, even the Nets' recent "good" play since the end of December doesn't look so hot in this light. While the Nets are 11–9 since a miserable 11–18 start, they've given up three more points than they've allowed in that time, and thus were fortunate to win more than they lost.

Things get worse if you just focus on the "post-Jefferson" era. Since forward Richard Jefferson checked out of the lineup to have ankle surgery, the Nets are 2–7 with a -53 scoring margin, which averages out to -5.9 points a game. On average, that margin would yield a .265 winning percentage — so despite the many close losses, even the Nets' recent record is richly deserved.

Since Jefferson is going to be out for quite a bit longer — recent reports suggest he'll miss the full six weeks of the original "4–6 weeks" estimate — New Jersey has to figure out a solution that can make them better in the meantime. A trade is one option, obviously, but the Nets have few cards to play unless they're going to deal Carter and Kidd and start over.

If they wish to stay the course with this group, they have to make an improvement from within. The obvious place for that improvement is in the frontcourt. No, I'm not digging the Jason Collins horse up for another beating, but thanks for asking. Instead, I wanted to focus on the bench.

The fact is, all the attention on Collins's miserable season has obscured an equally disturbing fact: Clifford Robinson, the top frontcourt reserve, has arguably been even worse. While Collins has the worst PER (Player Efficiency Rating, my per-minute rating of a players' statistical performance) of any regular in the NBA, Uncle Cliffy is fifth from the bottom.

And unlike Collins, Robinson's defense has been as lacking as his offense. Long regarded as one of the game's best defensive big men because of his length and mobility, the 41-year-old Robinson appears to have lost a gear in this regard.

For evidence, just look at the Nets' results with Collins on the court compared to Robinson. According to 82games.com, the Nets allow 9.2 more points per 100 possessions with Robinson in the lineup than with Collins, a difference that's especially telling since the two normally substitute for one another. Overall, New Jersey gives up 5.7 more points per 100 possessions when Robinson is on the floor than when he isn't.

Perhaps New Jersey could live with this dropoff if Robinson produced offensively, but his lack of scoring and rebounding make it imperative that he produce dividends at the defensive end. If that isn't happening, there's no point in keeping him in the rotation.

As uncomfortable as this may sound, the only available remedy is more Boki Time. While I'm well aware of Bostjan Nachbar's many shortcomings, the fact is that he can stretch the floor in a way that no other New Jersey frontcourt player can. Additionally, his ability to run the floor makes him a much better fit with the Kidd-Carter-Williams crew than the plodding Robinson.

Besides, in today's game the 6-foot-9-inch Nachbar isn't that undersized at the power forward spot. Moving him into the mix and Jason Boone to backup center could help the Nets get a few more points from the sputtering second unit.

That said, it will take a lot more than a tweak of the bench rotation for this team to play much better between now and when Jefferson returns. It's easy to argue that the Nets were just a shot away in several recent games, but a more sober analysis shows that in Jefferson's absence, the Nets are farther away than ever from rejoining the East's elite.

Correction from February 8, 2007: Josh Boone is the name of the Nets' center. An incorrect name appeared in an article on page 22 of yesterday's Sun.