Mets Fans Must Embrace Glass Half-Full Attitude
Having passed the 30-game mark, the Mets have reached the point of the season where their record is a significant indicator of their outcome. "It's early" no longer applies: After 30 games, that euphoric feeling that comes with a dominant start is a bit like that of a healthy pregnancy in its second trimester. Alternatively, that tickling cough that accompanies a weak start might be a sign of an illness that requires more than a lozenge to relieve it.
According to research done by Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus, 164 teams began a season with a 16-14 record, that of the Mets at this writing, between 1930 and 1999. The aggregate winning percentage of those teams over the rest of the season was a virtually identical .521, meaning that they finished the year with 84 or 85 wins — not enough to go to the playoffs even as a wild card in a typical season. During the last 10 seasons, the National League wild card winner has averaged 92 wins. In order to reach that total, the Mets will have to put up a .576 winning percentage from now on.
It's not an impossible task — 30 of those 164 teams turned their seasons around and made the playoffs — but it won't be easy given the handicaps under which the Mets will continue to labor. These scarcely require lengthy enumeration, and at this point, everyone knows the tune: underachieving and/or injured vets, erratic performances in the starting rotation, and a bullpen setup crew that has taken its share of poundings. In all, the Mets have scored one fewer run than they've allowed, which would normally equate to a record of .500 or a game worse. So in some senses, the Mets have been lucky to have the record that they do, as indifferent as it is. They are also fortunate that the rest of the division is just as flawed as they are — unless something dramatic changes, the teams of the East will be in a dogfight all season long, with even the currently surging Nationals (8-2 in their last 10 games) capable of playing spoilers.
The Mets' inconsistent playing this year has led to its fan base becoming noticeably tetchy, a not-unexpected outcome given last year's historic collapse. Almost anything short of a reprise of the 1984 Detroit Tigers' 35-5 start was certain to fail to banish memories of that horror show. Yet, the fans have it backward in this instance. Both last year and now, they seem to be looking at the Mets as overdogs who are underachieving instead of underdogs doing their best to play a flawed hand. The 2007 Mets were a mediocre team that got off to a hot start, and then suffered a hard, fast return to reality. The 2008 Mets are a mediocre team that has gotten off to a mediocre start, but given that they play in a mediocre division, not all is lost.
That's the glass half-full perspective, and one that both the Mets and their fans would be wise to embrace, because next year not only won't the glass be half-full, there might not be a glass at all. Carlos Delgado will be gone, but there's not enough Mark Teixeira to go around. The 2009 edition of Luis Castillo won't be able to hit with any more sock than the 2008 edition (and the same goes for the 2010 and 2011 versions, both already guaranteed). Brian Schneider will be healthier in body, but not in bat. Moises Alou's disabled list visits won't be the team's problem anymore, nor will Pedro Martinez's, but it's not obvious who will replace them. Oliver Perez is a free agent, and as annoying as his frequent mental breakdowns on the mound are, there isn't anyone to replace him, either. The coming free agent market will be thin after Teixeira and Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia, and the competition for both will be intense. No doubt few envision Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn as the ideal Mets left fielder or first baseman.
The farm system is a vast wasteland. The price paid for Johan Santana was not deep but broad, denuding the team of anything it had resembling a top prospect. Young outfielder Fernando Martinez is still around, but he had a lost year last season and seems to have picked up where he left off, hitting .254 AVG/.286 OBA/.346 SLG at Double-A Binghamton. He's a long way from contributing at the major league level, if he ever does.
The Mets may yet make something of this year' race. In the coming weeks they have 11 games against intra-division rivals — four with the Nationals, four with the Braves, and three with the Marlins. That stretch, which runs between May 12 and May 28 and also encompasses a series against the Rockies and an interleague bout with the Yankees in the Bronx, is shaping up to be a major test. Best to enjoy it rather than grouse: A year from now, there won't be any test, just a new ballpark inhabited by a fading team.
Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of "Forging Genius," a biography of Casey Stengel.
