Maddening NCAA Decisions

Rule no. 1 in college basketball: Never leave your fate in the hands of the tournament selection committee.

When the Syracuse Orange wrapped up a 22-win season with a narrow defeat against a tough Notre Dame team in the Big East tournament last week, they probably didn't figure their next stop would be the NIT. Yet that's where they're headed after the committee inexplicably shafted them in favor of Old Dominion and Stanford when it announced the tournament pairings yesterday.

The Orange had wins over Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette and didn't lose a game by more than 12 points the entire season — unfortunately, blowouts are an underrated factor that the committee doesn't look at as carefully as it should. What it looked at instead were the close shaves Syracuse suffered against Drexel, Oklahoma State, and Wichita State. As a result, the fact Syracuse beat Hofstra by 25 — a team that, in turn, beat Old Dominion and finished one game behind them in the same conference — made little difference.

Obviously Syracuse's softish schedule hurt, but they won 10 games and a tournament contest in the Big East, had a ton of doubledigit wins (including the aforementioned ones against the Hoyas and Wildcats), and closed by winning six of eight. ODU and Stanford aren't nearly as strong upon such close examination, and the committee erred in taking them ahead of the Orange.

If you really want to take this further, compare Syracuse to Vanderbilt, who not only got in but was gifted a no. 6 seed. Vandy went 10–6 in conference, just like the 'Cuse, except it was in a worse league. Vandy lost to Wake Forest and Furman in non-league play, got smacked down by the Hoyas by 16, and threw in a loss to Appalachian State for good measure. Then it went 5–5 in its last 10 games and lost in the first round of its conference tournament. So how are these guys better than Syracuse?

They're not, of course, but perhaps Syracuse fans shouldn't be lamenting this too much. Instead of being one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament, now they can have a nice long run in the NIT and, for those New York-area Orange fans, possibly return to Madison Square Garden for the final two rounds.

Nonetheless, after a couple years of fairly solid performances, the tournament committee went back to defying logic this year, and the Orange's exclusion was a perfect example. Missouri State also belonged in the fray ahead of ODU and Stanford, not to mention Vandy, and one could argue West Virginia did too. Although those teams were also hurt by the conference tournament losses by Xavier and Nevada — essentially taking away two spots for at-large bids — it made it even more imperative for the committee to tighten its logic. Apparently, it didn't.

Since I'm skewering the committee, let's take a second for the positives. I'll hand out plaudits for the gutsy decision to give Arkansas a much-deserved bid despite a losing record in the SEC. Also, give the committee a nod for having the stones to bump UCLA out of a no. 1 seed when it lost to California in the Pac 10 tournament

Otherwise, this was a depressing performance. For starters, there's the choice of Florida as the no. 1 overall seed. On the surface, this may not seem unreasonable — the Gators are the most talented team in the country, won the tournament last year, and might very well win it again.

But that's my point — this call was made on reputation, not on performance. With Florida's five losses, including three in their final five regular-season games, it seems pretty clear that the only reason they got the top billing was the word "Gators" on their jerseys. Had Wright State or Xavier shown up with the same résumé, there's no way they would have trumped Ohio State or North Carolina as the tournament's top seed.

The committee also may have created the single worst "pod" in tournament history, by putting Vanderbilt, Washington State, Oral Roberts, and George Washington in the same group. Going by the computer rankings of USA Today's Jeff Sagarin, Washington State is 42nd, Vandy 60th, George Washington 77th, and Oral Roberts 92nd. I don't think any of these teams could win the NIT, much less the NCAA. But if you're looking for a sleeper, check out Oral Roberts. Despite the team's poor rating and 14th-seed, the mighty Mouth Bobs have a real chance to win a round or two because their potential opponents are almost equally bad.

Finally, the committee should feel lucky that UNLV games aren't on the books in the Vegas casinos, which will save them the embarrassment of seeing no. 10 Georgia Tech opening as a seven-point favorite against the higher-seeded but vastly overrated Rebels. With a talented young backcourt that has NBA scouts drooling and a relatively easy slate — after UNLV they get a less-than-full-strength Wisconsin team — the Yellowjackets are the double-digit seed that's best positioned to make a deep tournament run.

While we're talking about sleepers, experienced tournamentwatchers know that no. 6 seeds have tended to perform disproportionately well, and this year should be no exception. Vandy could end up in the Sweet 16 by accident before losing by 30 to Georgetown, while two other no. 6s — Notre Dame and Duke — probably will be slight favorites in their second round games (against Oregon and Pitt, respectively) and could easily go to the regional final. The only one who doesn't have a great shot appears to be Louisville, who has a tough second-round date against a Texas A &M team that I could easily see in the Final Four.

If you're looking for first-round surprises, there's always a no. 12 seed that advances, and this year Arkansas appears more than equal to the task. The Hogs drew a kind matchup against a USC team that, like Arkansas, was embarrassed in its conference tournament final this weekend. In addition to Georgia Tech and Oral Roberts, the other double-digit seeds I like in the first round is No. 10 Creighton, who faces No. 7 Nevada (slogan: "Nevada's other overrated team") and whose conference, the Missouri Valley, has produced an unusual number of first-round upsets in recent years.

Okay, enough about the early rounds. You want to know whom I'm picking to be there at the end, right? As I mentioned earlier, I'm partial to Texas A &M in the South region, though I can't deny that Ohio State's talented freshman, Greg Oden, makes the Buckeyes a tough out. In the East, I think UNC outlasts another super frosh in Texas's Kevin Durant, and then squeaks past Georgetown in the regional final.

I'd expect Kansas to do the same in the West — it has what looks to be the easiest bracket, though Villanova in the second round won't be a patsy. But the Jayhawks will have to beat Duke, not UCLA, in the regional final. And in the Midwest, the Gators will be too tough for all comers and knock off Maryland and Notre Dame en route to the Final Four.

Once we get to Atlanta, I'm counting on Florida and Kansas to prevail. That will set up a rematch of what was arguably the best game of the year so far, the Jayhawks' 82–80 overtime win on November 25 in front of a pro-Jayhawk crowd in Las Vegas. This time the setting will be in Gator country, and the Florida fans could be the difference. Though I don't agree with its being the top overall seed, I can't argue with the logic that Florida is the team to beat again — and that nobody in this tournament can do it.

jhollinger@nysun.com