How the Women Should Actually Be Seeded

At Wimbledon, which begins next week, it's a year for tossing aside tradition. Men and women will earn equal prize money. On Centre Court and Court 1, players will call upon instant replay when they feel a linesperson has done wrong. And Centre Court won't have that cozy feeling any longer, now that the roof overhanging the stands has been torn down to make way in 2009 for a retractable top that will protect the entire court from those thundery, showery days so often — and so accurately — predicted by the tournament's meteorologists.

One thing remains, however: the tournament's ho-hum approach to seeding women players. Wimbledon is the only event that seeds according to its own formula, rather than simply accepting the world rankings. For the men, the tournament awards additional points for good performances on grass tournaments (including the previous year's Wimbledon). It doesn't treat the women in the same manner. Rather than rely on calculations, Wimbledon officials reserve the right to seed the women any way they like.

One would think that this would result in a lot of movement in the women's seeds, but the opposite has been true in recent years. Having the right to do pretty much anything, the tournament generally does nothing. Last year it bumped the defending champion, Venus Williams, up six places to no. 6, far too low considering her record at Wimbledon. This year, Williams was again the only woman to receive a nod from the organizers. She'll be seeded no. 24 rather than no. 31, most definitely a distinction without a difference.

Otherwise, the tournament duplicates the world rankings, which is a shame considering the state of the women's game this year. Whatever the rankings say, everyone knows which two women are playing the best tennis in 2007: Justine Henin and Serena Williams. This was the perfect year for Wimbledon to seed boldly. Since they didn't, we might as well do it for them. Here, then, are our top 10 seeds for this year's women's tournament:

JUSTINE HENIN (1) No argument with the world rankings here. Last year's finalist just polished off her third consecutive French Open and seems fitter now than she did at this time last year. Her family life, long in disarray, has settled, and her confidence seems at an alltime high — not surprising considering her pummeling of Serena Williams in Paris.

After Henin won the French Open, her coach, Carlos Rodriguez, said Serena's return to form had motivated Henin. He also said the 25-year-old Belgian was at last comfortable with her abbreviated service motion, which she undertook last year on the advice of doctors who feared she was burdening her shoulder to the point where surgery might be necessary. Henin's inconsistent serve has hurt her on fast surfaces in the past. If she serves well, she has an excellent chance to win her first title at Wimbledon, the only major missing from her collection.

SERENA WILLIAMS (2) Serena missed Wimbledon last year and played miserably two years ago, when she lost in the third round to Jill Craybas. Still, Williams ought to be seeded much higher than no. 7, based on her title at the Australian Open, her victory over Henin in Miami, the two times she drubbed Maria Sharapova this season (she lost five games in four sets), and her three straight trips to the Wimbledon final between 2002 and 2004 (two titles).

Williams has the best serve in women's tennis, and the most firepower. Since Australia, she's slimmed down (slightly) and should be motivated to recapture a title that, frankly, she should have won at least five times by now. She at least ought to be seeded in front of Ana Ivanovic, the French Open finalist who has a great game for grass but still no results at the All England Club, and Svetlana Kuznetsova, whose career record at Wimbledon is 11–5.

To put her in front of Sharapova (no. 2), Jelena Jankovic (no. 3 and 5–4 at Wimbledon), and Amelie Mauresmo (no. 4 and injured this season) isn't much to ask, either. As was the case in Paris, the quarterfinal match between Williams and one of the top seeds likely will produce the winner of the tournament.

Serena and Venus have entered the doubles draw, too (they are unseeded). The pair hasn't played together since Wimbledon 2003; they won the doubles title in 2002.

MARIA SHARAPOVA (3) Has the 20-year-old Russian regained enough strength in her injured shoulder to serve effectively? If the answer is yes, she might win. If it's no, she probably won't. Several poor showings this year drop her one place below her world ranking.

AMELIE MAURESMO (4) No idea what to expect from the defending champion, who has missed most of the season because of an appendectomy. She's a gifted athlete, a fine volleyer, and capable, we learned last year, of clutch performances. She also doesn't have too many more chances left to win a major title: she turns 28 on July 5. That said, she's properly seeded at her true ranking, no. 4.

JELENA JANKOVIC (5) This Serbian can run and swing with the best of them, but she can't serve worth a lick. She could reach the quarterfinals or semifinals for the first time, at best. Sorry, Jelena, you're bumped down two spots.

ANA IVANOVIC (6) Properly seeded at no. 6. As a junior, Ivanovic played her best at Wimbledon, where she was runner-up in 2004. If the nerves that destroyed her serve in the French Open final don't return, look out.

SVETLANA KUZNETSOVA (7) When she won the U.S. Open in 2004, Kuznetsova seemed like she would become the best of the Russian women. We're still waiting. (Subtract two for grass-court ineptitude.)

VENUS WILLIAMS (8) Our boldest move, and not because of anything Venus has done this year or last, when she lost in the third round of Wimbledon. Simply put, she has a better chance of winning the event than the other 120 women we haven't mentioned. Don't forget that she's won three times and lost in the final twice.

ANNA CHAKVETADZE (9) Another Russian, but this one relies on smooth strokes and quickness rather than power. It's only her third Wimbledon.

MARTINA HINGIS (10) The former world no. 1 is returning from an injury and probably won't go far. She's won Wimbledon once, in 1997.

tperrotta@nysun.com