Hill Goes to Desert in Search of That Elusive Ring

One of the advantages of being an NBA title contender is that your franchise becomes a self-supporting system. Veterans in search of an elusive ring gravitate toward those teams regarded as legitimate aspirants to the crown, often willingly signing up to play at huge discounts. That, in turn, makes those same teams even more likely to win it.

We saw that system in action this past June, when San Antonio's michael Finley got to hold the Larry O'brien Trophy for the first time after signing a below-market free agent deal with the Spurs two summers ago.

And perhaps we're seeing it again in the case of Grant Hill. Yesterday, the 6-foot-8-inch veteran swingman reached an agreement to join the Phoenix Suns for the laughably paltry sum of $3.8 million over two years, furthering the Suns' elusive quest to finally win an NBA title.

Hill joins a team that was already going to be among the league's top favorites. Phoenix gave the Spurs their toughest playoff test this season, falling in six games in the second round in part because of the controversial suspension of forward Boris Diaw and center Amare Stoudemire for Game 5 — a game the Suns lost by three points.

With three All-Star teammates in Stoudemire, point guard Steve Nash, and forward Shawn Marion, it's not like Hill needs to carry these guys on his back to the top of the mountain. He'll be asked to be a complementary player, using his athleticism to score in the Suns' fearsome transition game and providing another ballhandler when nash checks out of the game.

But he has plenty left in the tank. last season the 34-year-old wing shot 51.8% and had a Player efficiency Rating (PeR, my per-minute ranking of a players' statistical effectiveness) of 16.2 — one of the better marks at either shooting guard or small forward.

The question, as it always is with Hill, is his health. A series of ankle problems ruined the bulk of his seven years in Orlando, with only the past three seasons seeing him appear in reasonably good shape. even then he's hardly been the second coming of Lou Gehrig, missing 15, 61, and 17 games over the past three seasons.

Phoenix undoubtedly will take steps to keep Hill in the lineup, starting by limiting his regular-season minutes to the 20–25 a game range. That's something the short-handed Magic couldn't afford to do, but the Suns can because they have an elite sixth man in Speedy Leandro Barbosa.

With all that said, we haven't addressed the ultimate question yet — does this make them better than San Antonio? The Spurs have unquestionably become the litmus test for this team after being eliminated by San Antonio in two of the past three playoffs. last time it brought about the addition of Kurt Thomas a player they acquired for the express purpose of defending Tim Duncan in the playoffs.

This time, it spurred (pardon my pun) the addition of Hill. At the margin, one can see what a big step up this might be. Hill will take over the minutes played a year ago by James Jones — who was foisted off on Portland in a salary-cutting move on draft day —as well as some of those played by boris diaw.

Jones finished last season with a 10.8, a mark that falls far short of Hill's expected output in the 15–17 range. While Hill isn't the defender that Jones is, one must concede the total package Hill provides is far more desirable. The comparison with Diaw is a bit more even — he had a PeR of 13.0 last year but was at 17.3 the year before, and is a far better defender than Hill.

Nonetheless, when one considers that a point of PeR, over the course of 2,000 minutes, is worth about two extra wins for most teams, it seems Hill's addition could be worth as much as five wins to the Suns — provided he can play those 2,000 minutes.

In comparison with San Antonio, one can see how those extra wins are crucial. The Spurs were a 65-win quality team last year, as measured by my expected Wins statistic (which uses points scored and points allowed to estimate total wins, and is a better predictor of future success than win-loss record), while the Suns were at 62. Adding Hill, then, suddenly gives the Suns a leg up on San Antonio.

Of course, that metric assumes all things are equal, and they rarely are in real life. both teams will be making various and sundry additions and subtractions to their rosters this summer, and the players they keep will see their output change as they get better, older, or injured.

But after weeks of speculation that a different change was in hand for the Suns — in the form of a trade for Kevin Garnett — it's striking to see that a much less expensive deal could end up being the key to a first-ever championship banner hanging in the desert.

It again proves the weird truth of contending for an NBA title: once you get close, the task of adding talent becomes a lot easier. Grant Hill is just the latest example of that; here's hoping he can join Finley as a class act who helped his new team to the promised land.